Middle East | What role for Canadian diplomacy?

The recent Iranian attack on Israel, in response to the destruction of its consulate in Damascus, surprised many, no doubt including the Israelis themselves. We might have expected Iran to use its usual cronies like Hezbollah or to instigate an attack against an embassy or Israeli interests abroad.

But the shower of drones and missiles, apparently telegraphed in advance, is a precedent between these two nations. However, this is not the first time that another country in the region has directly attacked Israel.

In 1991, Saddam Hussein launched his Iraqi Scud missiles on the Jewish state. Imprecise, they fell everywhere, causing little damage. There were fears that they were equipped with chemical weapons. This was not the case.

The Israelis had absorbed the shock, knowing that the international coalition would be responsible for expelling the Iraqis from Kuwait as part of Operation Desert Storm.

Despite this war, the peace process continued, notably with the Madrid Conference which led to the Oslo Accords for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was even envisaged that the Syrian regime of Hafez al-Assad would sign peace with Israel.

But it was a completely different time. The Berlin Wall had just collapsed and the Pax Americana was on the rise. This is obviously no longer the case today.

Erosion of the Western model

Today, President Joe Biden is having a hard time controlling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The American political system appears dysfunctional, incapable of reassuring allies about the continuity of American foreign policy, exacerbated by a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.

An aggravating factor is the slow erosion of the international legal infrastructure, resulting from the Second World War, under the hammering of the Global South. But not only.

The behavior of Israeli forces in Gaza and the attack on a diplomatic entity also undermine the credibility of this system.

As well as the differentiated approach of our capitals when it comes to Ukraine and Gaza. “Double standards”.

The world scene is suffering from increased competition between two blocs: that of Western democracies and a few others like Japan on one side, and on the other, China, Russia and their allies who wish to establish a new international order.

Wouldn’t Israel and Iran have become proof of this new global reality? Israel being seen as part of the first group and Iran, the second.

The international community could count on the United Nations to help resolve conflicts and put in place instruments for peace.

But, a victim of international divisions, this organization has lost its political influence and increasingly resembles the League of Nations, which proved powerless on the eve of the Second World War.

A constructive role for Canada

In the Security Council, representatives of the two blocs use the right of veto to harm each other. Add to this observation the absence of a global perspective for a peace settlement and to ensure stability in the Middle East.

This is where Canada could play a constructive role.

On Gaza, we can welcome some positive gestures from Justin Trudeau’s government, such as the return of funding to UNRWA or the suspension of arms sales to Israel.

But in this matter, Ottawa is too often satisfied with G7 communiqués, which are not very imaginative. Our diplomatic fig leaf!

Our country has already served as a bridge between Israelis and Palestinians. This was the case when Canada led the important refugee working group of the Oslo process. He was involved in informal contacts (track 2) between Palestinians and Israelis thereafter.

Why couldn’t Canada play a leading role in the reconstruction of Gaza and the formation of credible Palestinian institutions? With our usual international partners, but also relevant NGOs and the United Nations.

Our diplomacy could also demonstrate innovative initiatives to promote the establishment of the two-State solution, Palestine and Israel.

At this stage, it is the only option that is almost consensual. With the exception of the Netanyahu cabinet, of course, which will undoubtedly be replaced, and according to polls, a large part of Israeli public opinion will have to be convinced.

Canada should now begin to stimulate reflection, build an international coalition, on what the two-state solution could look like in practice: borders, political and economic structures, the fate of refugees, financing of Palestine, disarmament, etc.

This could involve conferences, the preparation of discussion papers, round tables, particularly with members of the communities concerned in Canada. The university environment here can also play a central role. And the recognition of Palestine by our government. Why not encourage the organization of a “Madrid 2”, once the clashes are over?

Our contribution could be that the two states, Palestine and Israel, become something other than a vague slogan, but a reality. And a common goal for the entire international community.

Of course, this process will be long and full of obstacles. Canada cannot do it alone. With its network of allies and its diplomats who would like nothing better than to be used intelligently, it is a card worth playing.

We must find the political will and the courage to embark on such a project.

The citizen movement currently active in the country to put an end to the tragedy in Gaza will have to maintain pressure for the future of this enclave and more broadly that of the entire Middle East.

Returning to a situation before the Hamas assault on October 7, 2023 in Israel is simply impossible.

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