It is increasingly difficult to “guess” what will happen in a period as long as a year; We are always surprised by some events but there are others that we can foresee:
1.- In 2022 COVID19, its variants, vaccines, medicines and measures in each country will continue to be of interest, the end is not near.
2.- Since January and more and more evident and with more intensity, we will be living the contest for the CANDIDATURES FOR THE PRESIDENCY of Mexico in 2024; the president advanced that race but the interested parties will move more and more.
3.- In the first quarter of the year there will be an intense discussion about the imminent REVOCATION CONSULTATION; It will be discussed about the need to do it, about the quality with which it is done, about the campaign that will be carried out, the result is foreseeable.
4.- An important event for this government will take place in the first months, the inauguration of the new SANTA LUCÍA AIRPORT, surely the airport will be well done but the questions will be in the access (time and cost), the airlines and the routes that will fly, and the interaction with the current airport that will continue to operate.
5.- After the revocation, we will be immersed in the campaigns for SIX GOVERNMENTS, the population that will be able to vote is not even a fifth of the country but before the possible advance of MORENA the interest will be high.
6.- INSECURITY will continue to expect better numbers, it has already been 3 years of government and crime continues to show power in various areas of the country, even in several places with greater force than before; this variable is a pending of the current government.
7.- The ECONOMY seemed to recover above the forecasts for 2021, formal employment recovered, the growth rate presented good figures, but at the end of the year we saw a rebound in INFLATION and other variables that cast doubt on the future for 2022, so monitoring these variables will be important, especially at the beginning of the year.
8.- In 2022 the president will continue with the intention of achieving the energy reform that he proposed in 2021 but that to be approved must convince and accept changes in opponents; The same will happen with the announced POLITICAL-ELECTORAL REFORM, which will surely lead to the renewal of the INE, the reduction of parties, fewer legislators, freedom to campaign for the executive and others; support from opposition parties is required or that proposal will remain on paper.
9.- It seems inevitable that new cases of CORRUPTION will appear, not only from previous governments of which we have already seen many cases, but from current officials where we will see the way in which the president reacts, defends them or maintains the position that in their government are different.
10.- MIGRATION has not been resolved, if there is no other different policy and US collaboration, we will see new migrant caravans, concentrations of migrants in border cities, growth in some cities where they can be integrated as legal workers, etc. It is a problem that will appear at different times during the year.
11.- We are in the second half of the six-year term and the LACK OF MEDICINES has not yet been resolved; Although the government reports buying most of the “keys”, users report that the amount is insufficient; the president “ordered” that it be solved but until today it has only been his word; the army will participate in its distribution, which is one of the problems.
12.- A topic that will attract the attention of many and that will have great worldwide diffusion as every four years, will be the WORLD FOOTBALL IN QATAR, where Mexico will surely be generating hope as always. This time it will be held at the end of the year due to the climate in that country.
Of course they are not all, there will be others that we can foresee and that I did not consider on my list (follow-up to the Lozoya, Robles and more cases) and other unpredictable such as post-election conflicts, undesirable natural disasters and many more, I leave each reader the freedom to add whatever you want.
rrg
President of Consulta-Mitofsky
Numbers, Opinion and Politics
President of Consulta-Mitofsky, Actuarial and Mathematician from UNAM, with master’s degrees in Statistics and Acting at the Inter-American Center for Social Security Studies, and Diplomas in Political Analysis, in Senior Business Management and in Marketing, among others. He teaches courses in Statistics, Mathematics and political marketing in several countries, and is a permanent lecturer on topics related to research, politics and the media.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx