Ontario is likely to see more than 100,000 new cases of COVID-19 each day, with about five percent of its residents currently infected, says the province’s chief scientific officer.
Peter Jüni made the comment in an interview with CP24 on Wednesday afternoon while discussing the resurgence in COVID activity, which has now seen the number of people hospitalized with the virus rise by 40 per cent week on week.
“Based on our sewage analysis, we hit the peak that we were at in early January, and at that point, we had between 100,000 and 120,000 new cases a day,” he said. “What it basically means is that about five percent of the Ontario population right now has an active infection.”
Jüni told CP24 last week that the actual number of daily infections in the province was probably 35,000 to 40,000, but since then, positivity rates have soared and sewage surveillance has pointed to levels still high. highest rates of COVID-19 in the community.
He told CP24 that while the more transmissible BA.2 subvariant is driving some of the resurgence, it is not the main factor behind the increase in transmission.
He said the behavioral changes, brought about by the lifting of mask mandates for most settings, are in fact helping to increase the number of cases more than was anticipated when the scientific table released its latest model forecast ago. three weeks.
At the time, he said hospitalizations would likely rise to around 800 by May.
But as of Wednesday morning, there were 1,074 people in Ontario hospitals with COVID-19, and the strain on the healthcare system shows no signs of easing any time soon.
“BA.2 is a bit more transmissible than the original Omicron, for sure, but what we are doing, and this is in line with the provincial communication, people have just changed their behavior drastically,” said Jüni. “So it does not correspond to what we assumed in our latest projections when we assumed a moderate change in behavior.”
Premier Doug Ford has insisted that the increase in COVID-19 activity is not unexpected given the lifting of many public health restrictions and has expressed confidence that Ontario hospitals will be able to handle the increased volume of patients.
However, some epidemiologists have warned that the rapid increase in transmission could put vulnerable people at risk and ultimately lead to preventable deaths.
They have also questioned whether there are enough health resources to staff the extra beds the province claims to have created.
“Mask. We are not over this yet. This wave will go high. It does not mean that we will necessarily see the same number of hospitalizations, at least not if we have the same level of infection, but remember that we are still going up and we are already at the peak that we were last time, “Jüni warned. Wednesday.
UHN infectious disease specialist Dr. Abdu Sharkawy said masking should be reinstated in the province.
“I think removing the mask mandate was a mistake to begin with, because really, it wasn’t just a very visible symbol for everyone to recognize and remember that we were still in the middle of a pandemic. But it really was the simplest thing.” tool that was widely accessible to everyone regardless of means or privilege to help protect themselves and those around them from spreading this virus,” he said.
“There has to be a sense of awareness that the simplest tools that are at our disposal need to be exercised.”
While the province says it can increase resources if the need arises, Sharkawy said the extra beds won’t matter if hospitals don’t have healthy staff to care for them.
“If these numbers continue on the trajectory they’re going to be for the next several weeks, that could spell real trouble for anyone who needs help in an emergency room,” he said.
Sharkawy added that the province should also prioritize third dose vaccines as there are still many people who have not received their vaccinations.
“I think it speaks to the importance of making sure we deliver as many vaccines as possible to as many populations within the community and not allowing these variants to continue to appear in different parts of the world,” he said. “Until we do that, this is going to be a recurring theme and we’re not going to get to that endemic part of this pandemic that we keep talking about.”
Reference-www.cp24.com