The market consensus expects global growth in Gross domestic product (GDP) of 4.3% according to information collected by the international consultancy FocusEconomics.
This forecast is below the 5.8% estimated by private sector specialists consulted by the same firm in March; but it is still above the 3.2% updated by the World Bank.
The cut in expectations of 48 analysts, brokerages and financial firms incorporates the impact they estimate will have the deterioration of economic conditions in Europe and the United States, as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the impact of these events on inflation and purchasing power as well as greater risk aversion.
These private sector forecasts are revealed a few hours before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presents the updated economic expectations in the flagship report, the World Economic Outlook (WEO), which will be released this Tuesday morning. The forecast of IMF for the world economy it is still in an expansion of 4.4% this year, updated last January, a rate that, according to the Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, will be revised downwards.
According to the information collected by the consultancy, the US economy will achieve a growth of 3.4% this year and 2.4% for the next. These forecasts contrast with the 3.7% and 2.5% projected in March for 2022 and 2023.
Market forecasts for the world’s leading economy are far from the 4 and 2.6% projected in January by the IMF for this and next year.
Mexico: deteriorating outlook
inside the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast April, a cut in forecasts for Mexico is also observed, from the 2.4% forecast by private sector experts consulted in March, to the 2% estimated now, in the April compilation.
This forecast contrasts with the 2.8% still estimated by the IMF in your January update, which could be reviewed in this morning’s report.
The reading given by the experts of FocusEconomics Analysts’ diagnosis of Mexico is that of a slowdown in line with the lower drive from the United States.
It also incorporates the impact that the new supply interruption will have on the global chains on which Mexican manufactures depend, as a result of the war and new Covid outbreaks.
As well as the environment of uncertainty about the investment, which according to the firm’s reading, comes from abroad and from the domestic situation.
Among the 48 analysts consulted by the firm, the one who has the highest growth forecast for Mexico in 2022, corresponding to 3.3%, is American Chambers Mexico and only three more expect the economy to achieve a 3% advance: AGPV; DIW Berlin; as well as TD Securities.
In contrast, Euromonitor has the lowest growth forecast for Mexico this year, at 1.2 percent.
The IMF will disclose its updated growth expectations on Tuesday morning and, as the Managing Director anticipated, a cut is coming for most of the member countries, as a result of the deterioration of world conditions after the war.
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