The French have just re-elected Emmanuel Macron, the most hated politician in france, for a second term as president. How did that happen? Two of the most unpopular politicians in the US, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, may want to know as they are the frontrunners for their respective parties’ nominations in 2024.
The short answer is that while he doesn’t like Macron, his opponent, Marine Le Pen, was seen as dangerous. Better to stick with a candidate you don’t like than risk electing someone who endangers democracy and national security.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine probably sealed Le Pen’s fate. As a candidate from the extreme right, she was seen as a threat to European unity and NATO solidarity — as well as Western values. The leaders of Germany, Spain and Portugal published a opinion article in Le Monde two days before the elections, arguing that French voters “have to choose between a democratic candidate. . . and a far-right candidate who openly sides with those who attack our freedom and democracy, which are the fundamental values that we inherit directly from the French Enlightenment.”
Macron job approval ratingjust above 40 percent, it’s almost equal to that of President Biden. Biden is seen as weak, a criticism that took hold last summer when the United States withdrew from Afghanistan. But Biden is also a seasoned professional politician who knows how to connect with ordinary voters. Emmanuel Macron does not have a populist bone in his body. He is seen as arrogant, privileged and disdainful of ordinary people, “the candidate of the rich”.
It’s the same problem Mitt Romney had when he ran against Barack Obama in 2012. You may remember Romney telling his supporters“There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for [President Obama] no matter what.” These are people, he said, “who depend on the government,” who believe they have a “right to health, to food, to housing, and the government should give it to them.” Romney fatally added: “My job is not to worry about those people.” So much for the safety net.
Emmanuel Macron, like Romney, an investment banker by profession, says stuff like that all the time. During the campaign, Le Pen reminded voters of Macron’s “words of disdain”. . . power without empathy.” Macron called train stations places “where one meets people who are successful and people who are nothing.” When a woman criticized Macron’s handling of the pandemic and schools, the president told her: “You’re not living in the real world.” The stunned voter responded, “Aren’t we living in the real world? Are you telling us that, Mr Macron? In 2018 and 2019, President Macron faced a violent protest movement of the “yellow vests” in opposition to tax increases and economic inequality.
Le Pen tried to take advantage of Macron’s elitism by embracing populist economic issues. He promised to eliminate income taxes for those under 30, eliminate sales taxes for basic needs, and increase government spending for the poor. That is economic populism, leftist populism.
Populism has two faces: a liberal one (Bernie Sanders, for example) and a conservative one (Donald Trump). What they have in common is resentment towards the elites. Left-wing populists attack the wealth elite (for Sanders, that means Wall Street and big business). Macron’s most controversial proposal? Raise the retirement age in France from 62 to 65, a movement 70 percent opposition of the French
Right-wing populists attack the educational and cultural elite, especially when the elitists are condescending (eg dismissive of the “deplorables” and “people who cling to guns and religion”).
Le Pen is a right-wing populist. She is harshly critical of immigration and would end birthright citizenship for children of those born abroad. His most controversial proposal? She said she would impose criminal penalties on women who use islamic head scarves“a uniform imposed by the Islamists.”
Le Pen called his campaign “a choice of civilization” — French versus global. Like Trump (“America First”), Le Pen rejected multiculturalism and spoke of his supporters’ national pride and resentment of foreigners. Macron’s response? “I want a France in a strong Europe that maintains its alliances with the great democracies to defend itself, not a France that, outside of Europe, has the populist and xenophobic international as its only allies.”
What seemed dangerous was Le Pen’s call to a rapprochement with Russia. He promised to remove France from NATO’s integrated military command structure at a time when Russia’s actions have reinvigorated NATO’s founding purpose (resisting Russian aggression).
Le Pen also criticized the European Union and vowed to break its rules. “If Le Pen were elected, the European Union and NATO would instantly weaken, some even speak of collapse”, a EU diplomat warned. A former Italian Prime Minister put it succinctly: “If she wins, Putin wins.”
Macron faced populist opposition from both the left (economic populism) and the right (cultural populism). The ideological gap is something that started during the French Revolution: When the National Assembly met to write a constitution, conservative supporters of the king gathered to the right of the room and anti-royalists sat to the left.
In the French presidential elections of 2022, the separation persisted. After the left-wing leader was eliminated by placing third on the first ballot, he told his followers, “You must not give a single vote to Le Pen.” But he did not back Macron. So many left-wing voters abstained in Sunday’s runoff rather than vote for the hated Macron. The ideological divide overcame populist resentment. And he saved France.
Bill Schneider is Professor Emeritus at the Schar School of Politics and Government at George Mason University and author of “Standoff: How America Became Unruly” (Simon and Schuster).
Reference-thehill.com