LILLEY: Doug Ford could benefit if Ontario’s NDP and Liberal Party merge

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Are the Ontario NDP and Liberals about to merge? Not if sane people in both parties have to say in the matter.

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Losing stinks in politics just like elsewhere in life. People from the losing camps are still licking their wounds but merging these two fundamentally different parties is bonkers.

Yet, it’s now got the support of one of the most powerful Liberal cabinet ministers from the McGuinty era, Greg Sorbara.

“I would be advocating that – and this is rather controversial – that each of the parties dissolve themselves and enter into a merger that would create the Liberal Democratic Party of Ontario,” Sorbara told the Globe and Mail.

There seems to be some magical thinking that if you took the 23.76% of the popular vote that the Liberals got and the 23.73% of the popular vote that went to the NDP, that the merged party would get 47.49% of the vote and win power .

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In math, 2+2 always equals 4, but in politics, that isn’t always the case.

There’s no guarantee that the supporters of each party would stick with this new entity. There would surely be some Liberals moving over to back the Progressive Conservatives and some New Democrats opting to support an existing fringe party or forming one of their own.

Ford and the PCs under such a scenario could end up with even more seats.

That’s not to say that Ontario couldn’t move towards something closer to a two-party system. That’s effectively what exists in every province west of the Ontario-Manitoba border. But in those provinces, the Liberals have either effectively merged with the Conservatives or ceased to be a party that can challenge for power.

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In British Columbia, the Liberal Party is actually a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives that often acts more like a party of the right. Premier Scott Moe leads the Saskatchewan Party, which is regarded as being conservative, but is actually described as a “free-market coalition.”

The party has many members who would be federal Liberals and those who don’t want to join the NDP.

In Manitoba, it’s a battle between the PCs and the NDP and in Alberta the UCP and the NDP are the major contenders. Nowhere have the provincial Liberals merged with the New Democrats.

They may have faded into the background, like in Alberta and Manitoba, but they haven’t merged.

Had Andrea Horwath’s NDP been more ruthless — and more competent — after the last election, they would have attempted to kill off the Ontario Liberal Party and take much of its voting base. Horwath and her team de ella could n’t do it and even though the Liberals still do n’t have official party status, they showed a bit of life and even edged out the NDP in the popular vote in last week’s election.

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The Liberal brand is still strong in Ontario. Sure, it’s a bit battered and worn, but the Liberals remain a going concern.

What the NDP and Liberals both need to do is figure out what they are offering voters.

The NDP lost the blue collar union vote this election. Many workers who used to view the NDP as representing their interests don’t see a place for themselves. Is the NDP still a party of labor or has it moved on to represent urbanites motivated by grievance and identity politics?

The Liberals used to be a centrist party, the mushy middle that could pull voters from all sides. For the past two elections, though, they’ve tried to outflank the NDP on the progressive left. They need to decide who they are.

Until these parties figure those fundamental questions, Doug Ford and the PCs will be able to “Get it Done” at Queen’s Park without much opposition.