Kathryn Harrison: the climate summit’s focus on fossil fuels was long overdue

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Two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels. Yet surprisingly, fossil fuels are not even mentioned in the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Whatever the reasons (bureaucratic language to ensure coverage of all greenhouse gases or the political influence of the fossil fuel industry), since emissions from fossil fuels have been steadily increasing, it has become impossible to ignore the elephant in the room And that has big implications for Canada’s fossil fuel-intensive economy.

This spring analysis by the International Energy Agency concluded that to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 (as needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius), there can be no new fossil fuel development going forward. A later article in the prestigious journal Nature found that to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C, 84 percent of Canada’s oil sands must remain in the ground.

Much more attention is paid to fossil fuels at COP26 in Glasgow than in previous climate negotiations, and fossil fuels were the subject of several announcements during the first week.

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Coal

Four dozen countries, including Canada, and the European Union pledged to phase out coal-fired electricity, by 2030 for rich countries and 2040 “or as soon as possible” for developing countries.

Canada has already regulated the end of coal-fired electricity by 2030. The federal government has also committed to ending thermal coal exports by 2030.

So far so good …

Public finance

Twenty countries pledged to end public investment in fossil fuel projects abroad by the end of 2022. According to the findings of the International Energy Agency, those promises related to coal, oil and gas.

Canada’s commitment to ending international financing of fossil fuels deserves praise. But we are not adhering to the same principles at home, where we continue to direct public funds to projects like TransMountain Pipeline. The federal government has promised to end subsidies and public finances for fossil fuels, but has set a deadline for subsidies only, which is the smallest part.

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Production of fossil fuels

Historically, international climate negotiations have focused on reducing emissions, including the consumption of fossil fuels. In theory, since climate policies restrict demand for fossil fuels, supply should contract in response.

However, the annual United Nations output gap reports have found that plans for global fossil fuel production exceed what is needed under national climate promises by 2030 and are twice the level consistent with a 1.5 degree centigrade trajectory. Canada is among the countries planning to increase production of both oil and gas, even as we uphold the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 ° C.

Producers may be hedging their bets that countries will not meet their Paris Agreement commitments. Alternatively, everyone may be overly optimistic that their exports will prevail in a shrinking market. In either case, excess supply will lower global prices and undermine policies to restrict consumption.

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That is why more than 900 NGOs, 100 Nobel laureates, and 2,000 academics (myself included) have asked countries to negotiate a “Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty” to reduce production with justice for workers and communities.

Similarly, Denmark and Costa Rica are advocating for an Alliance Beyond Oil and Gas to encourage a just and managed transition of oil and gas production. Quebec has announced that it will join, as have others.

Canada has refused to participate because the production of fossil fuels is a provincial jurisdiction. While that’s true, the federal government plans to use its authority over international trade to phase out thermal coal exports, although coal production is also overseen by provincial governments.

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Canada has long shirked responsibility for subsequent emissions from our fossil fuel exports, even as we promise leadership at home. The new focus on fossil fuels at COP26 suggests that the days of strategy are numbered.

Kathryn Harrison is a professor of political science at UBC specializing in environmental and climate change policy. He has been writing opinion pieces for the COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.

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