Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano II: Odds, Records, Prediction

The last time Jermell Charlo and Brian Castano attempted to determine the undisputed junior middleweight champion, the convincing fight ended in an unsatisfying (though not necessarily unjustified) draw. On Saturday night, Charlo and Castano will be at it again as they square off in a rematch for all four 154-pound world title belts. Here’s everything you need to know about Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano, including the odds, his records, and a prediction on who will win.

The first time Charlo and Castaño fought 10 months ago, Castaño built an early lead on the scorecards. But Charlo used his power to hurt Castaño several times and ended the fight by sweeping the last three rounds. The judges saw it three different ways (one had it 114-114, one had it 117-111 for Charlo, and one had it 114-113 for Castaño).

Although some observers believe that Castano won the fight, and absolutely derailed judge Nelson Vazquez’s 117-111 scorecard after his ruling, there is little doubt that Charlo came out stronger in the end. Which makes the rematch even more intriguing, and apparently makes Charlo even hungrier to score the stoppage.

“Castaño is going to have to do something different in this fight,” Charlo said. “If not, he knows he’s falling asleep. Whatever he does or whatever move he makes, I’m going to be all over him. My goal is to knock him out.”

Charlo has fought at a world class level for the last five years, beating every opponent he has faced (except Castaño). His strong performance last July was to be expected. But Castaño was a bit of a surprise. He was more than a 2/1 underdog against Charlo, and the best win on his resume, a win against Patrick Teixeira, came against a B-tier opponent. Charlo is anything but, and yet Castano performed admirably.

“I think I won the first fight,” Castano said. “It could have been by a small margin, but I won it. This time, we are going to try everything to make sure we don’t leave the fight in the hands of the judges… We had a lot to learn from the first fight with Charlo. One of the biggest things I’ve learned is to be more cautious at times while I’m in the ring. It is powerful, but I will also bring my power. We learned from the first fight and we’re going to correct any mistakes we made.”

Here’s more on the Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano matchup that US viewers can watch on Showtime beginning at 9 pm ET on Saturday.

Jermell Charlo vs. Odds Brian Castano II

For his rematch, the odds aren’t that great. As I write these lines, Charlo is a -210 favorite ($210 bet to win $100), while Brown is a +160 underdog ($160 win on a $100 bet). I think Charlo would win 75% of the time these two fight, so I wouldn’t mind if you took his moneyline at those 66.7% implied odds (especially considering he was -225 earlier this week). . But I like that Charlo wins by KO/TKO at +260 even better, and I like the +400 you’d get for betting on a Charlo stoppage between rounds 7-12.

Even the idea of ​​betting a bit on a tie at +1400 is somewhat appealing. However, if you believe in Castaño, I’d take him to win a decision at +300 instead of a KO/TKO at +600.

Records of Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano II

Charlo (34-1-1, 18 KOs) has fought an impressive array of opponents since 2017. Those include wins against Erickson Lubin, Austin Trout, Jeison Rosario and Tony Harrison (Harrison beat Charlo in their first meeting). Although his knockout percentage isn’t that impressive, Charlo has shown more and more power as his opponents have improved, scoring stoppages in seven of his last eight wins.

A victory against Charlo would undoubtedly be the biggest victory of Castaño’s career. At 17-0-2 (12 KOs), he has scored draws against his two toughest opponents (Charlo and Erislandy Lara), and has solid wins against Wale Omotoso and Michel Soro.

Prediction Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano II

This should be an excellent fight. Castaño will press the action and Charlo will try to fight back. For the first half of the fight, this will be close, with Castaño perhaps taking a slight lead on the scorecards. But at some point in the second half of the fight, Charlo will hurt Castano, as he did multiple times in his first encounter. This time Charlo will finish him off to become the undisputed champion. Say, I talk for standing in the 10^the round.