Jarvis: Why COVID-19 Cases Are Rising Again and What Should We Do

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On December 8, 2020, the day before the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved in Canada, there were 491 active cases of COVID-19 in Windsor and Essex counties.

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A year later, on Wednesday, there were 530 active cases. Four more deaths were reported Tuesday.

How did this happen?

That’s how.

First, respiratory infections increase when the temperature drops because people congregate indoors and there is more person-to-person transmission, says Dr. Wassim Saad, chief of staff at Windsor Regional Hospital, “regardless of the virus with whoever is dealing. “

Second, last year we were dealing with the Alpha variant. This year, we are dealing with the Delta variant, which is at least twice as contagious.

Third, last year, Windsor-Essex was practically closed. We are largely open now, with packed restaurants and busy shops.

And some people are not following the remaining public health rules, such as vaccination mandates, wearing masks, and physical distancing.

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“I have seen this personally,” Saad said.

And the government’s announcement that it would start lifting vaccination mandates on January 17: “People felt a little more free to do things that they would have done before the pandemic, and this allowed the virus to circulate more,” he said. .

Health Minister Christine Elliott acknowledged this week that vaccine passports will be needed much longer.

So while a lot of people did everything right, “you have some bad apples that don’t follow the rules and don’t get vaccinated and it comes out that rates are increasing in the community,” Saad said. “I think it is a large proportion.”

Aren’t vaccines supposed to solve everything?

No.

Trials showed that vaccines are not 100 percent effective at preventing infection. If the virus is circulating and you are not taking precautions, you may still be infected. But you’ll be five times less likely to suffer from symptomatic illness if you’re vaccinated, according to the most recent data from Ontario’s Scientific Advice Table on Tuesday.

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The most important thing vaccines do is prevent serious illness and death. People who are not vaccinated are 13 times more likely to be hospitalized and 23 times more likely to end up in an intensive care unit, according to the data in the table.

The increase and renewed restrictions here are a punch, “but this is not a sign that vaccines are not working,” Saad said. “They are working.

“We just have to face the reality that we are going to live with (COVID-19) for the foreseeable future and potentially for many years,” he said. “We just have to learn to live with it and mitigate the damage.”

How do we do that?

“Increase vaccination (especially in children five to 11 years) and continue to use public health measures to reduce transmission now,” concluded the scientific table.

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“Too many Ontarians remain unvaccinated or under-vaccinated,” the table tweeted Tuesday.

Fifty thousand people eligible for the vaccine in Windsor-Essex have not received it, said Dr. Shanker Nesathurai, Medical Health Officer, repeatedly on Monday.

“Those 50,000 people … if they get vaccinated … we will have much better control of COVID-19,” he said.

First, we thought we needed to vaccinate 70 percent of the people. Now it’s 90, maybe 95 percent. The virus has evolved, it has become more contagious, so the goal has moved. Including newly eligible children ages five to 11, only 77.3 percent of the people here are fully vaccinated.

The new public health restrictions begin here on Friday. But the rules have to be appropriate. Indoor social gatherings will be limited to 10 people and bars and restaurants will be limited to 50 percent of their capacity. But there is no limit on big events like concerts or Spitfires games.

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The health unit has received many questions about this, Executive Director Nicole Dupuis admitted Wednesday.

“It is true that the letter of instructions does not provide additional restrictions on certain events,” said Nesathurai, “but that does not prevent people from using their better judgment …”

But it sure seems riskier.

The rules must also be timely.

“Immediate action must be taken,” Nesathurai said in the statement announcing the restrictions last Sunday.

But they are not effective until Friday, five days later.

At least the health unit is doing something.

Cases are increasing in 26 of Ontario’s 34 health units. The number of cases in Windsor-Essex would have justified a closure under the province’s rules last year.

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New infections in Ontario could reach 1,700 a day by the end of January, the scientific table projects. Admissions to the ICU can go up to 250 to 400. The ICU’s capacity is 300. After that, the surgeries are canceled.

And all of this doesn’t include Omicron, who “will almost certainly hit us hard and fast,” the table tweeted Tuesday.

What is Ontario doing about it?

Extending the current limits on nightclubs and wedding venues. That’s it.

If things are out of control in a region, it is up to local public health officials to do something about it.

“They (the health units) have our full support,” the Medical Director of Health, Dr. Kieran Moore, assured everyone on Tuesday. “We offer regular consultations.”

Windsor is one of five regions that does it alone.

The numbers are urgent. The government’s response is not.

“The public health service is not governed by polls or popularity,” Nesathurai said Wednesday.

But the prime minister is.

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