Jarvis: Omicron shows ‘how dangerous and precarious our situation is’

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There is nothing clearer than this.

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“The emergence of the highly mutated Omicron variant underscores how dangerous and precarious our situation is,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday.

A few months ago, we saw the number of COVID-19 infections drop. And, presumptuously, we plan the end of a global pandemic.

No more vaccination tests in January, Ontario said. No more masks in March. No more sense of urgency.

Despite the fact that vaccination had long slowed and remained below target, cases were expected to increase as restrictions were lifted and winter began.

And, of course, we pay little attention to the lack of vaccines in the poorest countries.

Now comes our well-deserved payment. Cases are increasing and we are learning another letter of the Greek alphabet, Omicron.

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The worrisome new variant of coronavirus is another stark reminder that this is not over, that almost two years after this, we are not even in control yet, that vaccination and public health measures remain critical and it is not just about what what happens here, but what happens in the rest of the world.

We don’t know how transmittable Omicron is. But we know that it has more mutations than the other known variants, more than 30 in its peak protein, which it uses to enter human cells. It seems more transmissible than the Delta variant driving the current wave of COVID-19. And people who have already had COVID-19 appear to be at higher risk of re-infection. Can you evade vaccines? We do not know yet.

We also don’t know how virulent Omicron is. Initial reports describe mild cases. But these cases were among college students, and young adults tend to experience milder COVID-19 symptoms. Hospitalizations in South Africa, where it was first identified last week, are on the rise, but that could be because more people are infected.

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We know enough for the WHO to warn that Omicron poses a “very high” risk to the world and that “there could be surges in COVID-19 in the future, which could have serious consequences.”

But it will be several weeks before scientists can answer key questions. What do we do now?

We grapple with the threat we are already facing: the surge in hospital admissions and cases from the current wave.

Another 85 cases were reported Tuesday in Windsor and Essex counties. There were 28 outbreaks. Twenty-one people are in hospitals.

We are about two percent of the Ontario population and we have about 10 percent of the cases in this province. We are a hot spot, again.

Windsor Regional Hospital admits two to three COVID-19 patients a day. Nine of the 18 COVID-19 patients at that hospital on Tuesday were in the intensive care unit on the Met’s campus.

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Erie Shores HealthCare in Leamington admitted 10 patients with COVID-19 in the past 24 to 36 hours. The positivity rate at the hospital’s testing center is 25 percent.

And the “boom season,” when admissions rise due to seasonal illnesses like influenza, is just beginning.

“The convergence of all of that together is quite alarming right now,” said CEO Kristin Kennedy.

“It’s not good now,” agreed Musyj. “Delta is bad enough. We should be concerned about Delta. “

A mobile vaccination team from Erie Shores held a pop-up clinic Tuesday, but they didn’t just target children, who have been able to get the vaccine since last Thursday. They still target adults who are not vaccinated almost a year after the vaccines were approved.

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Only 83.6% of people 12 years of age or older in this region are vaccinated. That’s lower than Ontario’s rate of 86.4 percent. And Ontario hasn’t met the 90 percent goal.

Only about 20 to 30 percent of the people eligible for a booster shot here have received it.

And most of the positive tests and admissions at Erie Shores, of course, are unvaccinated because this has turned into an unvaccinated pandemic.

In the meantime, we have just lifted another precautionary measure. You can go to Michigan, where cases are increasing and even fewer people are vaccinated, for up to 72 hours and come back without getting tested. Yes, the old rule that allowed people to get tested in Canada before going to the US It was silly and the cost of a test was prohibitive. But now we have moved to the other extreme, providing only random tests.

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We know what works, Musyj said: vaccination, public health measures and testing.

But, as the WHO’s Ghebreyesus put it, “We are going through a cycle of panic and neglect. Hard-earned profits could be gone in an instant. “

If Omicron turns out to be less dangerous than feared, it will be a stroke of luck. Because as long as this virus is circulating, anywhere in the world, it is also replicating and mutating. And that means it is only a matter of time before the next variant of concern arises. And we are learning another letter of the Greek alphabet.

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