Japanese voters went to the polls on Sunday for an upper house election in which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may receive a surge of support following the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a prominent statesman and power broker. of the party.
Abe, Japan’s longest-serving modern leader, was shot dead Friday during a speech in support of a local candidate in the western city of Nara, a murder the political establishment condemned as an attack on democracy itself.
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Elections for seats in the less powerful upper house of parliament are often seen as a referendum on the incumbent government, with recent opinion polls already pointing to a strong performance by the ruling bloc led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, an Abe protégé. .
As the nation mourns, both the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito could benefit from a potential wave of sympathy votes, political analysts said.
“The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition was already on track for a solid victory,” James Brady of consultancy Teneo said in a note. “A wave of sympathy votes now could increase the margin of victory.”
Campaigning was halted on Friday after Abe’s assassination, but politicians resumed pre-election activities on Saturday.
There was an increased police presence when Kishida appeared at a campaign event in a city southwest of Tokyo and a metal detection scanner was set up at the scene, an unusual security measure in Japan.
Polls opened at 7 am (2200 GMT on Saturday) and closed at 8 pm (1100 GMT). The media said that 15.3% percent of voters had cast their absentee ballot in advance.
A strong showing at the polls could help Kishida consolidate his government, giving the former Hiroshima banker a chance to carry out his goal of boosting defense spending.
It might also allow him to overhaul Japan’s pacifist constitution, something even aggressive Abe couldn’t accomplish.
“In the coming months, the administration will certainly look to strengthen internal security,” Brady said.
“By undermining the public’s overall sense of safety and order, the event could also add further momentum to key Abe causes, such as defense enhancement and constitutional review,” he added.
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Last week’s polls showed the LDP won at least 60 of the 125 seats up for grabs on Sunday, up from 55 it now holds, allowing it to maintain the majority in the chamber it has with Komeito.
Reaching 69 seats in the upper house would give the LDP a majority, a threshold that had been seen as an exaggeration before Abe’s assassination.
Kishida, once on the more moderate side of the LDP, has moved to the right, saying parts of the constitution may have elements that are “outdated and lacking.”
Opinion polls show that most voters are in favor of a larger military force.
But even a strong performance by the LDP will be overshadowed by the assassination of Abe, who as leader of its largest faction still wielded considerable power over personnel and political decisions.
His death raises the specter of a power vacuum and possible turmoil within the party, analysts said.
Japan’s small, populist Innovation Party, which won seats in the general election last year, could siphon votes away from the LDP. But since the party also backs constitutional revision, any progress it makes is likely to bolster the PLD’s reform goals.
(Reporting by Elaine Lies Editing by David Dolan, Helen Popper and Sandra Maler)