COVID-19 cases are on the rise again in Canada, and the blame lies with the two rapidly spreading Omicron sub-variants, also known as BA.4 and BA.5 variants.
First detected in South Africa in April this year, its ability to spread more rapidly than other circulating variants, primarily BA.2, has led scientists to predict its prevalence as the dominant variant in the coming months.
Canadian researchers examining the threat from emerging strains of COVID-19 predicted that Omicron BA.5 would account for nearly 70 percent of cases by Canada Day. the latest data from the Public Health Agency of Canadadating back to June 12, shows that BA.5 accounted for 20.4 percent of COVID-19 cases.
Sarah Otto, a professor at the University of British Columbia and a modeling expert with the Variant Coronavirus Rapid Response Network, predicted a July wave that would peak in August.
“The last sequence data was in mid-June, but the projections for July 1 would be: about 13 percent (of cases are) BA.4 and 69 percent BA.5,” Otto said in a statement. interview with The Canadian Press. .
“I refer to it as a third Omicron wave because I’ve lost count of all the other waves.”
Newer Omicron variants appear to be causing fewer hospitalizations and deaths than their older counterparts, which could be attributed to high levels of vaccination and possible herd immunity, according to infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch.
“I think we have to take a step back and remember that the vast majority of Canadians have been vaccinated. So we have a lot of protection at the community level against immunity through vaccination,” Bogoch told CTV’s Your Morning on Monday.
But, as subvariant cases increase, it is difficult to predict whether this trend will continue.
“(We are) starting to see an increase, for example, in sewage surveillance, the percentage of tests coming back positive and in certain parts of the country we even started to see a small real increase in the number of people in the hospital, ” he said.
“So it’s the real deal. We’re having, you know, a summer wave. And it is not very clear how big this wave will be. But we are certainly having more cases now than we were a few weeks ago.”
There is also growing concern about whether hospitals can handle a surge in cases, as emergency rooms across the country face unprecedented wait times, with some even facing closure.
“The health care system took a real beating during this pandemic and has never fully recovered,” Dr. Christopher Labos, a Montreal epidemiologist and cardiologist, told CTV News Channel on Monday.
“You’re understaffed, people who are burnt out, and you’re starting to see ERs being forced to close on weekends or nights due to understaffing. And all of this is happening in the context of more and more patients getting sick and more and more patients ending up in the hospital,” she added.
“Things are not well”.
Labos says the only way forward is for all members of the public to be given a fourth dose of Omicron’s specific vaccine, which should prevent serious illness and give the country’s hospitals a little respite.
“I think we’re going to need a backup to get us through the next few months because, although we were expecting a wave, the fact that it’s coming so early has distorted the plans a bit,” he said.
“The fact that cases are going up now has changed the calculus a bit and so if cases stay down, you better wait for that moment with a specific vaccine from Omicron that could come out in October, maybe in november”.
Eligibility for the fourth dose varies between provinces, although most only offer second boosters to older adults and others considered to be at higher risk.
Bogoch says that while the newer subvariants are much more transmissible than other strains, it’s not clear if they’re more dangerous or detrimental to people’s health.
The easiest way to stay safe is to be up-to-date on your COVID-19 vaccinations, Bogoch says, which will reduce your chances of getting sick and potentially eliminate your chances of hospitalization if you do get sick.
Otto noted that BA.4 and BA.5 appear to primarily infect the upper respiratory tract, rather than the lower lungs, leading to less severe cases on average than the pre-Omicron variants.
“My prediction is that cases will go up, hospitalizations will go up, but my current hope is that it won’t be as bad as the BA.2 wave,” Otto said, adding that there wasn’t enough data. yet to know for sure.
At the rate BA.5 has been growing, he said BA.5 is now about five times more common in Canada than BA.4.
“Pretty soon, it will just be wave BA.5.”
With Canadian Press archives
Are you guys for real?
Right in the article you say it’s not as dangerous as other variants.
Then you spin the long time coming problem of nurse retirements as related to Covid with the counter intuitive statement that hospitals are being over run / some hospitals may have to close.
Here’s a news flash for you; Covid has morphed into the common cold. Some people will die from their pre-existing health conditions. These are the same people who my die if they sneeze the wrong way on a sunny afternoon. The only emergency Canadians are facing is that they’re being manipulated by the media and politicians.
Stop pushing fear.
The idiot in the PM seat and his handlers are using it to spend money we don’t have to make up for their gross incompetence on all fronts.
If you’re wondering why your ratings are down across the board, perhaps it’s because people are growing tired of you bleating on about the narrative instead of reporting facts in a balanced manner.
Maybe some day I’ll turn on a news cast and watch it start to finish like I used to but for now there’s no reason. Beyond the basic facts, which make it out in spite of your reporting, the news never changes and only the dates change while the headlines remain the same.