Make no mistake, it is no longer just about Ukraine, because the interest is much higher. Ukraine is a simple pawn on the board where world geopolitics is played. It has now affected him as it previously affected Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine itself in the Crimea or Donbas. What is really at stake is the redefines security architecture in Europewhich makes the solution to the problem extremely difficult and it is sad to see how the European Union has been marginalized by the continuing diplomatic effort due to its own inefficiency.
Putin regards the disappearance of the Soviet Union as the greatest tragedy of the 20th century and wants Russia to be treated like the superpower the USSR once was. To achieve this, he must turn the clock of history back to 1997, when NATO’s major expansion to the East took place with the entry of 12 countries previously dominated by Moscow. He claims, without giving evidence, that in 1991 he was given guarantees that this would not happen. The fact that the West made a serious mistake by isolating Russia at the time, as it was defeated while communism was in fact, does not prove itself right. We have not learned the lesson of the Congress of Vienna which treated post-Napoleonic France generously in 1815 and thus guaranteed a continental order that lasted until 1914.
It is sad to see how the European Union has been marginalized by the diplomatic effort due to its own inefficiency
Putin is not right but he has his reasons because the ties between Russia and Ukraine date from the 9th century. Nader, in 2008, NATO lightly invites Ukraine to join the Organization, something that even today no one seriously considers. Then, in 2014, the Euromaidan riots overthrew the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych and in them the Kremlin saw the long hand of the West. As if that’s not enough, it’s not just that Russia feels ‘strangled’ by NATO, it’s that with uprisings against authoritarian leaders in Belarus Y Kazakhstan, countries in its current sphere of influence, Putin can not make jokes and that is why he not only vetoes Ukraine’s accession to NATO (or Sweden and Finland), but also does not want it to be a democracy, because it will not be a ‘bad. example ‘for a Russia that sends political opponents to jail and strikes dissidents.
Nowadays, when the 30th anniversary of the fall of the USSR is commemorated, Putin believes that the Soviet weakness of that time resembles that of the US today, which has a society that is so polarized that Republican voters think that Joe Biden stole their election and stormed the Capitol, seat of popular sovereignty. And he believes Washington has lost the will to fight after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. He also takes poor care of Boris Johnson, that he has problems with his parties; on Macron, in an election year, and to the German governing coalition, which shows disagreement over its policies with Russia. The rest does not count us. On top of that, backed by $ 600 billion in reserves and rising energy prices, he confirms that the annexation of Crimea did not cost him too much, and he sees Kosovo or Palestine as useful precedents for his current ambitions.
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But this semblance of Western weakness can be misleading because Republicans and Democrats are united like a pineapple against Russia (and China), because Beijing is closely following what is happening in Ukraine and if we now show weakness in Ukraine, we will have problems in Taiwan even sooner than we think, and because Europe needs a reaffirmation of the US security guarantee after the Trump years. If Putin establishes a sphere of influence in Europe by force, his demands will grow tomorrow because today’s nationalist Russia has a expansionist policies not unlike what the Romanov tsars or the communist tsars might have done. Such serious violations of international law can not be condoned without paying a high price.
An additional problem is that no one can lose face and go home empty handed. That’s why, although Putin will continue to try to divide us and the tension will continue to grow in the short term, we must give in. opportunities for diplomacy so that the blood does not reach the Dnieper River. There is still hope.
Reference-www.elperiodico.com