Tel-Aviv, Israel-
Israel’s interim prime minister took a risk with his preemptive strike against Islamic Jihad militants in Gaza, less than three months before he is due to compete in general elections to retain his post.
Yair Lapid had been counting on Hamas’s militant rulers in Gaza staying out of the fighting, allowing Israel to weaken Hamas’s smaller sister group and prevent a full-blown escalation. At the same time, he may also have gained political ground before the polls.
With a ceasefire between the sides on Monday, after three days of violence, the calculation appears to have been accurate.
Hamas stood by as Israeli planes struck targets in Gaza, killing two Islamic Jihad leaders in targeted strikes, and Israel’s missile shield intercepted many of the hundreds of rockets fired by Islamic Jihad.
The long-suffering civilians of Gaza once again bore the brunt of the violence, with 44 Palestinians killed, including 15 children and four women. Israel said some were victims of rockets that missed.
The Egyptian-brokered ceasefire, which took effect Sunday night, capped one of the shortest rounds of fighting since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. Israel and Hamas have fought four wars in the past 15 years, while more than 2 million Gazans endured a suffocating border blockade between Israel and Egypt.
Since the last war in May 2021, Lapid and his ruling partner Naftali Bennett have sought to create further incentives for Hamas to remain calm along the Gaza border, with the implicit recognition that this would consolidate the militants’ rule. .
As part of this strategy, Israel issued permits for 12,000 workers from Gaza to enter Israel, with the promise to deliver more if the situation remains calm. Qatar and Egypt have also engaged in the reconstruction of Gaza, with the support of Israel.
On Monday morning, Israel partially reopened Gaza crossings that had been closed during the fighting, signaling a swift return to agreements that existed before the fighting.
Some said Lapid scored political points at home with the brief military campaign.
“Lapid is in a much stronger position than before because the main claim against him is that he does not have enough experience,” said Gayil Talshir, a political analyst at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “He could also claim that he is trying to bring about a paradigm shift” that underpins Israel’s Gaza policy.
Going into the Gaza offensive, the centrist Lapid, a former TV host and author, lacked the security credentials that Israelis often look for in their leaders. He was seen as a glaring weakness when he faces former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who casts himself as a security hawk, in the November election.
On Monday morning, Lapid appeared to have honed his security skills to fend off what he said was an imminent threat from the Palestinian militant group.
“It’s crucial to his campaign,” said Tal Schneider, a veteran Israeli political correspondent. “It is useful when you have more experience in military activities when you go to the elections.”
The events of the past few days have also underscored Hamas’s shifting priorities as it focuses on governing and staying in power.
“Hamas does not want a war every two days. If you join publicly, this means the destruction of buildings, infrastructure, and the Egyptians played an influential role in preventing Hamas from joining the battle,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science at Gaza’s al-Azhar University.
Israeli work permits are a lifeline for Gaza’s economy, battered by widespread destruction from Israeli attacks over the years and crippling restrictions on movement.
The permits are “definitely very important for Hamas as it rules Gaza and has governance responsibilities,” said Hossam al-Dajani, a political scientist at the Islamic University of Gaza.
Meanwhile, Lapid has signaled other policy changes.
Throughout the fighting, Lapid has refrained from mentioning Hamas, diverging from Netanyahu, who held Hamas responsible for any fire emanating from Gaza.
At the same time, the outgoing Lapid-Bennett government responded to every single shot from Gaza, including incendiary balloons. And Lapid seems to have gone beyond the self-proclaimed security buff Netanyahu, whose strategy was largely to attack Gaza in response to rocket attacks. Lapid chose a preemptive strike in the most recent round, citing specific threats from Islamic Jihad.
“This government has a zero tolerance policy for any attempted attack, of any kind, from Gaza into Israeli territory,” Lapid said at the start of the operation on Friday.
Lapid was the architect of the outgoing coalition government, an alliance of eight diverse parties spanning the Israeli political spectrum that was united largely by their shared antipathy toward Netanyahu.
The coalition, which for the first time in Israel’s history also included an Arab party, ended the 12-year reign of Netanyahu, who was Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. His Yesh Atid party is expected to be the second largest in parliament in November elections and could have a chance to form a government.
Unlike Netanyahu, who served in an elite unit in Israel’s mandatory army in the late 1960s, Lapid was a soldier and a journalist for a weekly magazine published by the Israeli army. As prime minister, Netanyahu guided Israel through three wars with Gaza, escalated a campaign to attack enemy targets in Syria and rattled sabers with Iran over its nuclear program.
Lapid rose to fame by promising to address living standards issues and became a hero to the mainstream secular middle class, courted for his telegenic countenance and promises to stretch their shekels. They cared little for his less than heroic military service.
But Lapid has been unable to penetrate other constituencies in part because he has little security experience. In his stints in government, he has served as minister of finance and foreign affairs, gaining valuable skills in politics, governance and diplomacy, but failed to gain experience in security.
In the weeks after the offensive, Netanyahu is likely to seek to topple what Israel sees as a military achievement. But having dragged Israel into three far more costly wars in Gaza, and failing to quell rocket fire from Gaza during his more than a decade in power, Netanyahu may not succeed.
“Lapid will be able to claim that the policy he led alongside Bennett was more effective than that of the man trying to replace him in the prime minister’s office,” columnist Anshel Pfeffer wrote in the daily Haaretz.
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Rose reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press journalist Fares Akram contributed to this report from Gaza City, Gaza Strip.