Hamas said Monday evening that it had accepted a truce proposal submitted by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, while the Israeli army carried out intense bombardments in Rafah, where it is preparing a ground offensive. Events whose synchronicity is not a coincidence, experts believe.
What there is to know
Hamas accepted on Monday a truce proposal submitted by Qatari and Egyptian mediators.
The Israeli army is preparing the ground for a ground military operation in Rafah. She ordered part of the population to “evacuate immediately”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult choice as he continues the war in the Gaza Strip.
The announcement made by the Palestinian Islamist movement comes after weeks of unsuccessful negotiations carried out through mediator countries – Qatar, Egypt and the United States. But above all, it comes as the IDF seems on the verge of implementing the threat repeatedly made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Rafah, which he describes as “the last bastion of Hamas” in the Strip. Gaza.
PHOTO AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Palestinians in Rafah prepare to leave the city to follow an evacuation notice issued by the Israeli army.
The Israeli army also affirmed on Monday that an offensive was essential to “destroy the last four battalions” of Hamas. The same day, it carried out intense bombardments on the crowded east of the city. She says she struck more than “50 terrorist targets.”
In leaflets dropped on Rafah, the Israeli army had previously warned that it was “preparing to act forcefully against terrorist organizations” and asked residents to “immediately evacuate” to a humanitarian zone about ten miles away. kilometers from the city.
PHOTO ISMAEL ABU DAYYAH, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Leaflets dropped Monday morning on the eastern neighborhoods of Rafah warn that “the Israeli army is preparing to act forcefully against terrorist organizations.”
This evacuation must prepare the ground, according to Israel, for a land military operation. Many countries, including the United States, Israel’s main ally, oppose it, as do many international organizations, including the UN.
A difficult choice
By accepting a truce proposal, Hamas places the Jewish state – and primarily its prime minister – before a difficult dilemma, believes Marie-Joëlle Zahar, professor of political science at the University of Montreal.
Today, Hamas presented Netanyahu with a choice: to bear the brunt of the war or to save the internal coalition. (…) There does not seem to be any way out where he will win all the way.
Marie-Joëlle Zahar, from the University of Montreal
Thomas Juneau, a Middle East specialist attached to the University of Ottawa, is of the same opinion. If the proposal is accepted, he said, “it will be difficult for Netanyahu to survive politically.” The ruling coalition is made up, among others, of nationalist elements who are hard-liners on the Israeli question. If they were to disavow the Prime Minister, “his political survival would be in danger”. “He has highly intransigent far-right actors in his coalition who will make him pay dearly” for any sign of softness, says Mme Zahar.
Mr. Netanyahu is not, however, the only actor to find himself under pressure, the two observers argue. This is also the case for Hamas, for whom the specter of an offensive in Rafah could explain the openness to a truce proposal.
“Far from demands”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the proposal was “far from Israeli demands,” while adding that he would send a delegation “to mediation to exhaust possibilities of reaching an agreement.”
According to a senior Hamas official, Khalil al-Hayya, the proposal would include three phases, each lasting 42 days. It would include a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced and an exchange of Israeli hostages still held in the Gaza Strip and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Even if very little information has filtered out regarding the precise nature of the proposal, according to the experts interviewed by The Press, this would show a certain flexibility on the part of Hamas, but also a desire to shift responsibility for the failed negotiations. Initially, Hamas “accepted the idea of a ceasefire which is not permanent”, it seems, which until recently was excluded, notes Mme Zahar.
Then, Hamas’ announcement comes just days after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the “only obstacle between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire” was Hamas. On this point, “he has just overturned the table,” she says.
Joy…and panic
In the evening, Rafah, where more than a million people were crowded, was the scene of scenes of joy and shots in the air after Hamas’ announcement of a truce.
PHOTO AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Despite the airstrikes, many celebrated Hamas’ proposed truce in Rafah.
During the day, however, a Palestinian Red Crescent official in eastern Rafah, Ossama al-Kahlout, said that “residents are evacuating in terror and panic.” According to him, the areas designated by the Israeli army are home to around 250,000 people.
As for whether an agreement could take shape in the coming days, it seems that nothing is less certain. “Netanyahu is experienced in exercising power in a difficult context,” says Mr.me Zahar. He knows how to maneuver to gain time, which is perhaps what he is trying to do. (…) But its objective remains above all to get rid of Hamas. »
This is also what Mr. Juneau, of the University of Ottawa, believes: “Israel will want to put forward an opening to negotiation, to limit bad press. But everything suggests that he wants to at least carry out a partial operation in Rafah. »
With Agence France-Presse
reference: www.lapresse.ca