Is Jason Kenney done? As rival Brian Jean returns to Alberta legislature, a new poll offers some surprising numbers

EDMONTON—Either the party is already over, or it’s just starting for Brian Jean.

As Alberta’s governing United Conservative Party barrels toward a review to determine whether one of its founders, Premier Jason Kenney, should continue as leader, Jean has been making inroads with his eye on the top job.

Jean was the other party founder, the former Wildrose party leader who lost to Kenney in 2017 during the UCP’s first ever leadership election.

On Thursday, he returned to the Alberta legislature as a newly minted UCP MLA-elect after securing a byelection win in Fort McMurray this week. Jean resigned his seat in 2018 after losing the leadership election.

“It’s very exciting for me, and I see a great future ahead for all of us,” he told reporters after he was introduced by the Speaker in the chamber and received a round of warm applause from all MLAs in attendance, including a handful of standing ovations.

Kenney and the government house leader, Jason Nixon, weren’t present.

Jean has been pledging to take down Kenney and arguing that the premier can’t successfully lead the governing party to victory over Rachel Notley’s NDP next year.

It wasn’t a far-fetched argument to make, either, as Kenney and the UCP have been trailing the NDP for more than a year in various polls as the government has been criticized for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But a new poll done by independent pollster Janet Brown, and obtained by the Star on Thursday, suggests the UCP support is edging back into majority-government territory.

It comes at a pivotal moment for the UCP and Kenney’s team as they organize furiously ahead of the April 9 leadership review vote in Red Deer, which is expected to bring out about 10,000 members.

The poll was done between Feb. 25 and March 10, in the wake of Alberta lifting nearly all public health restrictions and just after Kenney’s government had released a promising budget amid strong economic signals stemming from high oil prices.

If a provincial election were held today, according to Brown’s poll, the UCP would win 47 seats in the legislature while the NDP would take 40. A party needs 45 to hold a majority.

During a scrum with reporters at the legislature building Thursday, Jean took credit for the recent upswing of support demonstrated by the poll.

“I’m not surprised at all, because people have known for a long time that I’m coming back into politics,” he said. “I think I am actually providing people with hope for the future, for the UCP.”

The UCP has gained significant ground, adding 12 projected seats since November 2021 when the pollster had the party with 35 and the NDP with 52. The gains for the United Conservatives were made both inside and outside Calgary as well as outside of Edmonton, according to the chicken.

The NDP’s Notley holds a higher approval rating than Kenney, the results suggest. While the gap between the two leaders has narrowed, Notley has a 44 per cent approval rating (down 10 points from October) versus Kenney, who holds a 36 per cent rating.

Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP would take 40 per cent of the vote while the NDP would pull in 36 per cent, according to the poll.

For the better part of two years, Kenney has been struggling to contain anger within his caucus and party membership. The premier has been criticized by some who say he put in too many public health restrictions and by others who say he didn’t do enough to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

It’s all culminated in the party’s leadership review next month.

Much of Jean’s political pitch has been around the idea that Kenney can’t beat the NDP in the 2023 provincial election.

The poll used a sample size of 900 Albertans who were contacted randomly by phone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

It stands in contrast to a poll released by Research Co. on Monday that showed 45 per cent of decided voters would support the NDP in a provincial election while just 30 per cent would support the UCP.