this is maybe the big unanswered question of these days. That lightning war in which the Ukrainian government would be deposed and another akin to Moscow would be implanted that would allow it to control the country has not happened. Zelenski resists in Kiev/Kyiv and it seems that the invasion, according to Western analysts, is not going according to the Kremlin’s plans.
However, day after day you can see how the map of Ukraine is changing color in the areas of Donbas and on the Black Sea coast. Russian troop advances are also seen in Kharkiv/ Kharkov, and the capital is already preparing for the siege. Meanwhile, Belovezhskaya Pushcha is being negotiated and the sanctions are beginning to take effect. Everything too slow for the ukrainian population who suffers from the attacks and flees the country.
The Western strategy seems to bet on stall the presence of Russian troops in Ukrainehence the decision of arms shipment the Ukrainian Army and the approval of sanctions that will suffocate Russia and push it back from its positions. The idea is that Ukraine resists in order to be able to negotiate in better conditions when Russia, exhausted, can’t take it anymore or ‘something’ changes in the Kremlin government. At this point, everyone agrees that only Putin has in his hands the end of the warTherefore, only from within the regime could things be changed. But is this realistic?
For there to be a change of leadership and/or regime there are two options, the revolutionary path and that of the palace coup. The situation to be reached is a Putin against the ropes abroad who would try to strengthen his regime by all means and, as in all authoritarian regimes, this would materialize through the restriction of freedoms, repression and propaganda. The isolation surrounding what is happening outside Russia and the perception of Russophobia by citizens in the economic, sports and cultural spheres would also strengthen Putin’s position, would have room to sell the image of a Russia under attack and thus encourage, even more, the victimization of the Russian people. It is important to remember that the Levada public opinion institute, declared a foreign agent by the Kremlin in 2016, offered levels of support for Putin before the invasion of 71%, around twelve points more than in 2020. Despite the demonstrations that have been taking place in recent days against the invasion, it is important to remember that They are located in the big cities., that is, in urban and cosmopolitan centers, not in the rest of the territory. Autocratic regimes reinforce themselves against their public opinions in moments of crisis, especially if these are linked to an external threat. And the majority of Russian citizens have been listening to and buying this speech for a long time. The closure of the media not related to the Government, as well as all social networks, leave very little room to weave networks that are powerful enough to articulate a protest movement strong enough to shake the regime. In these circumstances, a revolutionary path does not seem very likely.
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The alternative would be a palace coupsomething that has not been ruled out either and is, perhaps, more feasible. The sanctions imposed on the network of oligarchs and their fortunes they seek to find the place through which to open a crack that allows a change of leadership. In theory, these oligarchs concerned about the future of their fortunes, woven under the protection of the leader and Western complicities, could try some maneuver either to convince or to overthrow the president. But be careful, you would not be on the brink of a regime change, something that neither the oligarchs nor their Western partners are interested in, but rather the continuity of the existing one or perhaps a worse one, more conservative and ultra-nationalist than the current one.
Prospects are therefore bleak.. Nothing good is expected at the front, nor in the Russian rear. Those who lose the most, in any of the scenarios, are the ordinary Ukrainians and Russians.