Inflation drives trade figures in value

High levels of inflation boosted Mexico’s foreign trade figures in May, analysts at Banorte and Scotiabank noted.

“In our opinion, the figures are showing a good growth in the margin, although still quite high due to a boost from the increase in price, given that these figures are presented in nominal terms”, commented Juan Carlos Alderete, Francisco Flores and Yazmín Pérez, Banorte analysts in an analysis.

High commodity prices prevailed and were a relevant driver for the oil sector. “We believe that the environment of high prices will continue in the short term despite the moderation in recent weeks due to growing global fears about a recession.

Oil and some grains will probably continue to be under pressure as long as the conflict in Ukraine and the related sanctions are present,” the three analysts added. To the latter must be added the effect of drought conditions in some regions.

For his part, Miguel Saldaña, an analyst at Scotiabank, indicated that some uncertainty persists regarding supply chain interruptions and their impact, especially on manufacturing exports. In addition, he considered that the persistent dynamics of inflation represents a downside risk.

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