Jermell Charlo (34-1-1) and Brian Castaño (17-0-2) will square off on Saturday night in Carson, California to decide the undisputed 154-pound champion. The fight is a rematch of a hard-fought fight last July that ended in a draw. BetMGM makes Charlo the -200 favourite, while punters can get Castaño +175 and the fight ends in another draw at +1600 (16/1).
The first time these two met, the three judges scored it 114-114, Castaño 114-113 and Charlo 117-111. Anyone who has seen the fight knows that Charlo’s 117-111 is a joke. I thought Castano won a tight decision, but either way the fight was very close and that should be the case again in the rematch.
Bettors don’t expect either fighter to win by stoppage. The odds of the fight going the full 12 rounds are -225. It makes sense considering neither fighter has been stopped in 55 bouts combined. Four of Castaño’s last six fights have gone to the scorecards, while 17 of Charlo’s 36 fights have ended in decision. Charlo has +125 to win on points, while Castaño has +300.
This line should be closer to the pair, so there is some value in Brown. Charlo is the more skilled fighter overall, but Castano’s pressure really bothered him in the first matchup. However, Castaño ran out of gas and Charlo controlled the later rounds.
Castano is a pressure fighter who likes to start off strong. The question is can he maintain that pace for 12 rounds against a fighter of Charlo’s caliber? Another thing to keep in mind is that the rematch was originally scheduled for March, but had to be postponed because Castano suffered a torn bicep. That’s a tough injury for a boxer to recover from in just a couple of months.
This fight is a contrast of styles. Charlo wants to use his six-inch reach advantage to keep Castaño out. Meanwhile, Castaño wants to constantly pressure Charlo and make the fight ugly. Both fighters were successful in the first match implementing their style and hurting their opponent.
In the first match, Castaño landed 173 punches, but only nine were jabs. The 173 punches is the most against Charlo, and Castano landed 41 percent (164 of 400) of his power shots. Charlo threw 287 jabs but landed just 53 (18.5 percent). Charlo’s jab has to be a bigger factor in the rematch or he’ll be in trouble.
Castano has two draws on his record and believes he won both decisions. The WBO light middleweight champion has vowed not to let this fight make it onto the scorecards, though that could leave him susceptible to a big hit. Castano is not known as a great defensive fighter and Charlo capitalized on that in the later rounds the first time they met.
Some analysts believe that Charlo will make the proper adjustments this time around and the betting odds have moved towards him. It will also be difficult for Castano to win a decision in a close fight. That is the reality of boxing. Last Saturday, Dmitry Bivol dominated Canelo Alvarez, but he needed to win the final round to avoid a tie on all three judges’ scorecards.
I like this matchup for Castaño. The concern is that he comes out with his hair on fire and then fades in the later rounds. However, Charlo took a lot of hits in that first matchup and I don’t see that changing. This will be another close and competitive fight. Brown is worth looking at anything +150 or higher.
Reference-nypost.com