How likely are you to win the 2021 Christmas Lottery?

The odds of winning a prize in the Christmas Lottery 2021 they are quite low. Really, you have to be very lucky for a person to get the ‘Gordo‘in the draw on December 22. For Miguel Córdoba Bueno, professor of applied mathematics at CEU San Pablo University, chances are reduced to 5%. On the other hand, the chances of getting out of the draw without anything increase up to 86%. [La Lotería de Navidad 2021, en directo]

[Comprobar si mi décimo de Navidad tiene premio]

Despite the superstitions and beliefs that exist, in the Christmas Lottery there are no neither ugly nor pretty numbers, or tricks that are worth because anyone can go out. Regarding the Gordo de Navidad, the illusion of winning the first prize is very high among the players, but the chances are quite remote. In this specific case, the probability is 0.00001% (1 in 100,000). “Everyone is free to have their beliefs but scientifically they are 100,000 equal balls, with the same possibilities of leaving each one of them, and it is one in a hundred thousand (the ‘Gordo’) “, assures Córdoba Bueno. [Consulta los números premiados en el sorteo de Navidad]

Reimbursement probabilities

Because there is very little chance of winning a main prize, many settle for just getting the money played back in the Christmas Drawing. In this case, there is a 9% chance that touch the refund.

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The possibilities, however, grow in the Children’s Lottery (7.82%). The drawing on January 6 triples the amount earmarked for withdrawals. 37,812 numbers out of the 100,000 in each series win a prize (almost 38%), while 62,188 numbers are unsuccessful.

Unlike the above, in the Christmas Lottery only 13,334 numbers out of 85,000 are awarded (less than 16%) and 71,666 numbers get nothing.

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