The interdependence of countries is cultural, political, economic and social. Or put another way, in this global world independence does not exist.
With the Russian invasion, the dirty laundry is coming out. One of them is that a week ago the Ukrainian government denied German President Frank Walter Steinmeier a visit to kyiv because of his relations with Russia, characterized by a lack of firmness and making the mistake of supporting the construction of the gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, Nord Stream 2, which would have doubled the supply capacity of Russian gas to Germany, which Berlin suspended in February. Germany’s dependence on Russian gas is now paying dearly by importing it from other sources. Internally, the government is being questioned by opposition parties and its own allies.
The closeness of the German government with Putin comes from the time Gerhard Schroder governed. He wrote in 2011: “We must look favorably on cooperation between energy companies (…) Peace and stability on the European continent can only be guaranteed in cooperation with Russia and not against it.” Accommodation with risk without European strategic vision.
The galloping inflation that is happening in the world has its origin in the “Putin effect” consisting of the fact that 70% of the rise in prices in March came from the increase in energy and food prices derived from Putin’s war decisions . For this reason, the US government is using part of the historical volumes of crude reserves and is encouraging the oil industry to increase the production of biofuels and support Europe.
In Mexico, inflation is rising rapidly. It is the highest in the last 20 years. But in addition, since the low-income population represents 60% of the total population, which allocates 40% of its spending to food, the rise in prices affects the family economy.
The Secretary of Agriculture and Social Development is implementing, together with agricultural producers, measures to increase production. This is particularly important because the balance of grains and oilseeds presents significant drops in production as well as in the harvested area.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) also warns of the problems that have worsened due to their depth. Says WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo: “The war in Ukraine has caused immense human suffering, but it has also harmed the world economy at a critical time (…) History teaches us that dividing the world economy into rival blocs and Turning your back on poor countries does not lead to prosperity or to La Paz”.
In the Ukraine war, what is likely to happen is that even if the battle is won by Russia, it will eventually exhaust itself forcing them to leave. Just like the war in Vietnam or the war in Afghanistan.
World Bank President David Malpass characterizes the global present as a time of unprecedented overlapping crises. This requires imagination and political talent to find viable solutions, and consensus to solve global problems.
For now, the uncertainty within the dictatorship of today and now.
Economist
Economy and Society
Writer and graduate in economics, graduated from the National Autonomous University of Mexico. From 1984 to 1990 he was the Mexican ambassador to the Kingdom of Denmark, where he was decorated with the Dannebrog order.