Thanksgiving dinner will come at a high price for Canadians this year, according to data compiled by Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analysis Laboratory.
Sylvain Charlebois, who teaches food policy at the university and runs the lab, explains that prices for some Thanksgiving dinner staples have risen as much as 26% compared to March 2020 and 22% compared to this time last year. Statistics Canada reported on September 20 that, in all retail food products, inflation increased by 10.8 percent.
“People are getting less for their food dollars on Thanksgiving. A lot of people are struggling,” Charlebois told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview Monday. He added that seven percent of people examined by the laboratory in early September he admitted skipping meals due to rising food prices.
“There is more pressure on families than ever before,” he said.
Turkey, a mainstay of Thanksgiving dinners in Canada, has increased the price per kilogram by an average of 15 percent compared to last year and 22 percent compared to March 2020, according to new data.
Potatoes are 22% more expensive than last year and 26% more expensive than in March 2020.
Frozen corn is up six percent from last year, but only one percent from March 2020.
The price of bread has increased by 13% compared to last year and 21% compared to 2020.
Turnips are only two percent more expensive this year than they were last year, but 26 percent more expensive compared to March 2020.
The cost of bacon, a Thanksgiving staple at the Charlebois home, is up two percent compared to 2021 and 25 percent compared to March 2020.
Blueberries are 12% more expensive compared to last year and 14% more expensive compared to 2020, and the price of butter is up 13% compared to last year and 25% compared to March of 2020.
People looking to offset rising food prices with shopping deals will also be disappointed, Charlebois said.
“The discounts are about 10 percent lower (in value) than what we were seeing just a year ago,” Charlebois said. “And there are fewer discounts available to consumers.”
A ‘GLOBAL PHENOMENON’
Canadians are not alone in their struggle to afford food, Charlebois said, with a handful of global factors driving up prices in countries including France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, Australia, Japan and the United States.
“Broadly speaking, we need to recognize that this is a global phenomenon,” Charlebois said. “Within the G7, Canada has the third lowest food inflation rate right now. Only Japan and France have a lower inflation rate.”
In Germany, he said, the food inflation rate has reached 16.6 percent.
One of the main drivers of global food inflation, Charlebois said, remains supply chain disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and complicated by labor shortages.
“Supply chain challenges have persisted for quite some time,” he said. “They are still there and that has made things more expensive for everyone.”
The other main factor is the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up commodity prices. Commodities are raw materials that countries exchange for use in manufacturing and production. They include everything from precious metals to energy and agricultural products such as wheat.
“Prices have actually started to fall from the peak on May 17, but we expect prices to rise in the next few minutes due to a weaker than anticipated harvest.”
Then there is the very Canadian question of the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar compared to the US dollar. As of September 26, the Canadian dollar was worth 73 cents to the US dollar, which could spell trouble for grocers as fall gives way to winter.
“We import a lot of food from outside during the winter and a lot of our grocery stores are negotiating prices now, so with a weaker dollar your purchasing power is going to drop,” Charlebois said. “The Canadian dollar is getting weaker day by day as we go into the fall, and that’s going to be a problem.”