If Mexico stops exporting crude oil, but at the same time manages to eliminate imports of petroleum derivatives thanks to greater domestic refining, the oil balance would only have a slight improvement, since the country has a large deficit in two other varieties of products that also form part of this balance: natural gas and petrochemicals.
Between January and October, Mexico had a historical deficit in its oil trade balance of $ 20.607 million, as a result of settling exports of $ 23.344 million and imports of $ 43.952 million, according to data from the Bank of Mexico.
On the export side, crude oil is the core support, with a contribution of 84% to the total value, followed by oil derivatives (11%) and petrochemicals (5%).
Regarding imports, petroleum derivatives –gasoline, diesel, LP gas, jet fuel, oils, etc.– make up the most significant component, with a contribution of 54% of the value, followed by natural gas (23%) and petrochemicals (22 percent).
In this way, if crude oil exports (19.510 million dollars) were taken out of the calculation of the oil balance, but also imports of derivative products (23.883 million), the deficit of the oil balance would be 18.831 million dollars, that is, 1,775 million dollars lower than the observed deficit (8.6% lower).
Performing the same exercise, but with data from 2019, prior to the pandemic (which helps to eliminate the negative effect on the trade balance of the increase in the value of natural gas imports this year due to the winter storm in Texas in February past), the balance deficit –without crude oil exports or petroleum imports– would have been $ 11.476 million, when the observed deficit was $ 18.278 million.
In both cases, the remaining deficit on the balance after removing crude oil exports and imports of derivatives is the product of the presence of natural gas and petrochemicals, items in which Mexico had a trade deficit of 10.264 million as of October this year. dollars and 8,567 million, respectively.
In the last decade, Mexico has increased its dependence on US natural gas, as it has replaced the consumption of more polluting fuels in the generation of electricity. At the same time, the decrease in the domestic production of petrochemicals has led to a greater importation of these products.
This week, the Mexican government announced its goal to reduce crude oil exports from Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) by almost 60% in 2022 and bring them to zero by 2023, in order to process all of its oil production internally. through its refinery system.
His plan is to almost triple the crude oil process by 2023, going from 714,000 barrels per day processed in 2021 to one million 971,000 barrels per day in 2023, of which one million 308,000 barrels (66.4% of the total) would be transformed into the six current refineries of the state company –after receiving maintenance–; 340,000 barrels in the new Dos Bocas refinery (17.3% of the total); and 323,000 barrels in the Texan Deer Park (16.4%), whose acquisition Pemex expects to close next year.
It should be noted that the government indicated in its plan that in 2023 Pemex would not export crude oil and it counts the crude processed in Deer Park as a product transformed internally in the country, however, as it is a refinery located in Texas, United States, the crude Pemex Maya that is sent to said refining center must be accounted for within a foreign trade operation (export), as well as the entry into Mexico of the refined products it produces (import).
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx