Gotland, the Swedish island at a crossroads due to the Russian war

The sound of gunshots breaks the silence in a sleepy forest as Camilla Selander, a delicatessen worker, fires her Glock 9mm pistol during target practice with the Swedish National Guard on the island of Gotland.

The 34-year-old woman is one of the volunteers practicing at a military firing range on the island, and will likely be on the front lines of any future confrontation between Russia and Sweden.

The island is just 300 km (186 miles) from the home of Russia’s Baltic Fleet in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, between Lithuania and Poland.

“People are a bit worried, but we are trying to keep everyone calm: we talk about what is happening but we tell each other that everything is going to be fine,” Selander told Reuters on a break from practice in the Visborgslatt forest.

Security policy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced Sweden and neighboring Finland to rethink their security policy and whether they can safely remain outside NATO, unprotected from the promise that an attack on any member will be seen as an attack on all.

Both countries are expected to decide whether to apply for alliance membership in May.

Gotland, briefly occupied by Russian troops in 1808 during a war that saw Finland fall under the tsar’s rule for a century, is considered important for the defense of Sweden and vulnerable Baltic NATO members such as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

“If the Russians were to occupy parts of Sweden, that would create a kind of… ‘wall’ that NATO would have to break through before it could help its Baltic members,” says Karlis Neretnieks, a former Major General and director of the College. Swedish National Defense.

“With Sweden in NATO, this ‘wall’ would more or less become a ‘path’ to help the Baltic states.”

After withdrawing its forces from Gotland following the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago, Sweden is rapidly rebuilding its military presence on the island, a 170 km (105 mile) long rocky outcrop in the middle of the Baltic Sea that it is a popular vacation spot for many Swedes.

In 2018 he reactivated the army’s Gotland Regiment, and has reinforced the defense of the island with surface-to-air missiles and other measures. The buildup is part of a general rearmament triggered by Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Although Sweden’s military and government have said they do not believe Russia has invasion plans, President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine mean that few are willing to trust that assumption for their safety and security. Both Sweden and Finland are expected to announce that they plan to apply for NATO membership.

“In the short term, the military situation would be better for Sweden and Gotland,” explains Colonel Magnus Frykvall of the Gotland Regiment.

“The threshold effect would be higher for Russia in terms of attacking a NATO country than a non-NATO country.”

A decision to join would redraw the security map of northern Europe, creating a largely unbroken band of NATO states across the continent from the Arctic to the Black Sea.

Finland’s position

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto is expected to lend his support on May 12, pressing Sweden to do the same.

An all-party review of Sweden’s security policy is due to be reported on May 13 and ruling Social Democrats, who have long opposed joining the alliance, are expected to come out in favor of membership days later.

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For the people of Gotland, whose picturesque coastline is dotted with disused World War II machine gun nests, recent months have brought a sense of throwback to a bygone era, when its strategic importance on a Cold War frontier was never in doubt.

“Gotland,” notes retired officer Rutger Banholtz, former head of the National Guard. “It’s an aircraft carrier.” “He who settles on Gotland controls much of the Baltic Sea.”