GOLDSTEIN: Trudeau programs popular until we have to pay, says report

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Everyone knows that the answers to public opinion polls depend on the questions asked.

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The findings of a new online Leger survey of 1,509 Canadian adults from April 17-19, commissioned by the fiscally conservative Fraser Institute, illustrates this reality dramatically.

The Canadian survey asked about their support or opposition to three signature programs of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau which were contained in last month’s federal budget — a national $10-per-day childcare program, a national dental care program and a national pharmacare program.

When asked whether they supported these programs, the overwhelming majority in each case were in favor of every one — 69% supported $10-a-day childcare compared to 15% opposed, 72% supported dental care compared to 18% opposed and 79% supported Pharmacare compared to 13% opposed.

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But when asked whether they’d be prepared to pay for them with a one-to-two-point hike in the federal goods and services tax, support for all three government programs collapsed to under 50%, with more people opposed to the initiatives than in favor in each case.

When a price tag for taxpayers was included, 51% opposed $10-a-day daycare compared to 36% in favour, 46% opposed dental care compared to 42% in favor and 48% opposed pharmacare compared to 40% in favour.

(In both polls, the rest of those surveyed didn’t know or didn’t offer an answer.)

All of which raises the issue of how Canadians are regularly bombarded with polls by governments and special interest groups arguing for the creation or continuance of “popular” government programs, without mentioning the costs.

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Which is absurd, because everything governments do is paid for by taxpayers eventually — either in higher taxes, cuts to other public services or increased debt, meaning even higher costs to taxpayers in the future.

As the Fraser Institute noted from federal government reports, the projected cost of $10-a-day childcare to taxpayers will be $7.9 billion annually when fully implemented, the cost of dental care $1.7 billion annually when fully implemented and while the cost of pharmacare has yet to be established, a 2019 federal advisory committee estimated it at up to $15.3 billion annually when fully implemented.

“Despite the federal government’s borrow-now, pay-for-it later approach to public programs, Canadians need to be aware that these programs have significant costs that will have to be paid for eventually… either in the form of higher taxes or less spending on other programs,” said Jake Fuss, co-author of the Fraser Institute report, Polling Canadians’ Support for New Federal Government Programs.

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Previous polls validate the Leger findings.

For example, when the Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey of 1,936 Canadian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum from Oct. 13-18 in 2020, 86% supported a national pharmacare program compared to only 14% opposed.

That is, until they were asked whether it should be paid for by a 1% increase in the middle-class tax bracket, at which point support collapsed to 47% with a majority — 53% — now opposed.

My rule of thumb from years of reading polls on public attitudes toward addressing climate change, is that most people are in favor of it, until they’re questioned about broad-based taxes that hit most of the population to pay for it.

This as opposed to “taxing corporations,” for example, without ever explaining that corporations simply pass along their increased costs to us in higher prices for goods and services.