Juraj Slafkovsky would be the worst first overall pick in the last ten years, according to The Athletic.
The author of the survey did not do the exercise to diminish or glorify anyone, but rather to measure the quality of the vintage at the peak of the next harvest compared to previous ones.
To arrive at such conclusions, Corey Pronman interviewed six NHL scouts and team managers.
- Connor McDavid, 2015
- Connor Bedard, 2023
- Auston Matthews, 2016
- Jack Hughes, 2019
- Macklin Celebrini, 2024
- Rasmus Dahlin, 2018
- Owen Power, 2021
- Nico Hischier, 2017
- Alexis Lafrenière, 2020
- Juraj Slafkovsky, 2022
Let’s not tear our shirt because the new young star of the CH looks poor. The 2022 vintage has never been considered exceptional at the top of the pyramid. Slafkovsky wasn’t even unanimous, let’s remember a certain Shane Wright.
In that sense, comparing Slafkovsky to first overall picks in other years seems a bit unfair. Especially when players like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes are there. For the sake of fairness, we should rather evaluate the Canadian power winger with the players drafted after him.
In this regard, Slafkovsky comes out on top for the moment. He played more games (121) than the second in this regard, Logan Cooley (82). He is also first in points (60), ahead of Cooley (44) and defenseman Pavel Mintyukov (28).
That said, does Slafkovsky deserve to be tenth and last on Pronman’s list? The hockey men surveyed by him seem to have omitted an exercise that was nevertheless essential during the draft: projection.
Alexis Lafrenière has just had his best career season with 57 points. He has seven more than Slafkovsky. But Lafrenière is 22 years old and in his fourth season in the NHL. Slafkovsky just turned 20.
Instead, let’s look at the production of first overall picks over the past ten years in their second season in the NHL.
Connor McDavid, center
82 games: 30 goals, 100 points (1.22 points/game)
Connor Bedard, center 1
Only one season
68 games: 22 goals, 61 points (0.90 points/game)
Auston Matthews, center
62 games: 34 goals, 63 points (1.02 points/game)
Jack Hughes, center
56 games: 11 goals, 31 points (0.55 points/game)
Macklin Celebrini, center 2
To be continued…
Rasmus Dahlin, defender
59 games: 4 goals, 40 points, -7, 19:17
Owen Power, defender
76 games: 6 goals, 35 points, +10, 22:55
Nico Hischier, center
69 games: 17 goals, 47 points (0.68 points/game)
Alexis Lafrenière, winger
79 games: 19 goals, 31 points (0.39 points/game)
Juraj Slafkovsky, winger
82 games: 20 goals, 50 points (0.61 points/game)
From his second season, Slafkovsky therefore had a point per game average well above that of Lafrenière at the same stage of their career, higher than that of Jack Hughes and almost as high as that of Hischier.
But if we rely on his second half of the season, where he amassed 35 points in 40 games, his average points per game explodes to 0.88 and approaches that of Bedard, who was at a first year, but qualified as an exceptional talent.
This average for the second half of the season is also close to that of Hischier at age 25, in his seventh year in the NHL.
Hischier brings an important defensive dimension to the Devils, but Slafkovsky, at 6 feet 4 inches and 230 pounds, brings to the CH a rare particularity in terms of robustness, power and talent.
It’s definitely harder to compare Slafkovsky to the Sabres’ two defensemen, Dahlin and Power, but the quality guard will always be worth more than the winger.
In short, it would be wiser to say that Slafkovsky cannot claim the status of McDavid, Bedard, Matthews and Hughes, but he will eventually be able to enter into a debate with the others without suffering from imposter syndrome.
And if it had been necessary to extend the list over fifteen additional years…
- Nathan MacKinnon, center, 2013
- Nail Yakupov, winger, 2012
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, center, 2011
- Taylor Hall, winger, 2010
- John Tavares, center, 2009
- Steven Stamkos, center, 2008
- Patrick Kane, winger, 2007
- Erik Johnson, defender, 2006
- Sidney Crosby, center, 2005
- Alex Ovechkin, winger, 2004
- Marc-André Fleury, goalkeeper, 2003
- Rick Nash, winger, 2002
- Ilya Kovalchuk, winger, 2001
- Rick DiPietro, goalkeeper, 2000
- Patrik Stefan, winger, 1999
1 51 matches 42 points
2 40 games 35 points (0.88)
Quote of the day
He didn’t have it in the first two games, he’s struggling. It’s difficult. These are the series, on foreign rinks, he has strong opposition. But it’s only two games. We return home and we will be able to control the trios he will be pitted against. He doesn’t get scoring chances when he has them. He should have four or five per match.
Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery on his top forward Alex Ovechkin.
The Capitals lost their first two games of their series against the Rangers in New York. Ovechkin was shut out and had just one shot on goal.
reference: www.lapresse.ca