Jesperi Kotkaniemi was still excluded from the top 10 on a majority of lists in anticipation of the repechage ahead of the World Under-18 Championship in April 2018.
It had been smoking there. Kotkaniemi had nine points in seven games and Finland cruised through the tournament with a 7-0-0 record, 31 goals scored, only 12 allowed, en route to a victory in the final against the Americans.
Finland and Kotkaniemi had also dominated a few months earlier at the Five Nations tournament, also pitting some of the best players under the age of 18 against each other.
“Kotkaniemi has just proven, during the two most recent U18 tournaments, that he has the talent to become a number one center in the NHL,” former Canadian recruiter Grant McCagg dared to predict on Twitter.
This young Finn appeared on 21e rank in the combined rankings, compiled by the site canucksarmy.com, but McCagg was no longer the only one to think so. Kotkaniemi had climbed phenomenally on most lists to finally end up with the Canadian, holder of the third selection rank.
Kotkaniemi, however, gave the Canadian a good first season, with 34 points in 79 games at just 18 years old, in 2018-2019. We thought he was on track to flourish this winter after producing 43 points the previous year at the center of the Hurricanes’ second line, and especially twelve points in his first twelve games last fall. But his lack of hard work during training, now documented, harmed his development.
He has nevertheless just found the center of the second line for the Hurricanes in the series against the Islanders, between Teuvo Teravainen and Martin Necas, to the detriment of Evgeny Kuznetsov, relegated to the fourth line.
Place in the current tournament
The eyes of NHL recruiters have been on Finland since Thursday, where the World Under-18 Championship has just opened.
Kent Hughes, Vincent Lecavalier and the Canadiens recruiters are there, as are a majority of managers and scouts from the 31 other clubs.
One of the top scorers of the 2024 vintage, American Cole Eiserman, took the opportunity to score three times Thursday in a crushing 9-0 victory against Slovakia, after a season of 52 goals in 51 games within the program of American development.
This tournament has its share of pitfalls. On the one hand, this is one of the last steps to evaluate the best prospects in anticipation of the June draft. But perceptions are often distorted by the absence of the best players and the low caliber compared to the World Junior Championship, with its 18 and 19 year old players.
The consensus first pick of 2024, Macklin Celebrini, skipped it, like Connor Bedard the year before. Bedard was not going to waste his time against 16 and 17 year old players, after having outrageously dominated the World Junior Championship a few months earlier with 23 points in seven games…
In addition to Celebrini, Ivan Demidov and defenders Artyom Levshunov and Anton Silayev will not be there due to the geopolitical context. Cayden Lindstrom and Berkly Catton, two probable choices in the top 10, are injured. Two other defensemen, Sam Dickinson and Zayne Parekh, are playing in the Ontario Junior League playoffs. American defender Zeev Buium turned 18 in December.
There remain, among the best candidates for the draft, Tij Iginla, whose club, Kelowna, has just been eliminated from the playoffs in the Western Junior League (Iginla nevertheless scored 9 goals in eleven games), Eiserman, Trevor Connelly, Konsta Helenius, Emil Hemming, Aron Kiviharju, Maxim Massé and Liam Greentree among the main candidates in the first round.
Most formations therefore do not have great depth. Then imagine countries like Norway, Latvia, Kazakhstan or the 2024 vintage of Slovakia, against which Eiserman inflated his personal record.
The wise recruiter will go there to gather additional information on the most attractive players, will analyze their play without the puck, and will focus on their way of playing and not on the results.
The Colorado Avalanche, although not a dunce in the draft, was tricked in 2016. Tyson Jost finished at the top of the tournament scorers with 15 points in just seven games. He had represented the undisputed leader of the Canadian team. Colorado, not surprisingly, had drafted him tenth overall. He was predicted to have a great career. Jost now plays a supporting role with the Sabers and even played 25 games in the American League this winter, at age 26.
This time the Canadian did not fall into the trap. Montreal had drafted defender Mikhail Sergachev ninth overall despite his lackluster tournament. But this brilliant choice will have played only four games in Montreal…
The Lightning on the verge of elimination
PHOTO KIM KLEMENT NEITZEL, USA TODAY SPORTS VIA REUTERS CON
When the Lightning won their last Stanley Cup, in 2021, they could count on a top 4 defense consisting of Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak. Tampa even had the luxury of employing Jan Rutta and David Savard in a third pair.
McDonagh was traded for salary cap purposes, Sergachev, injured, is not available until mid-May, best-case scenario. After Hedman and Cernak, we now find ourselves with Nick Perbix, Darren Raddysh, Emil Lilleberg and Matt Dumba to defend against the attacks of the Panthers.
Raddysh, 28, played in the American League last year. Lilleberg spent half the winter there. Perbix, 25, is in his second full season. Dumba is at the end of his journey. The Lightning paid a fifth-round pick to get him, but also received a seventh-round pick. In short, it was almost given away.
The production of the Lightning’s best offensive players may have skewed the data heading into the playoffs. Tampa now trails 0-3 in this series. Despite the presence of excellent goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning allowed 3.67 goals per game to the Panthers, eleventh in this regard since the start of the playoffs. No defender after the first two plays 18 minutes.
The slope will be steep to go back up.
reference: www.lapresse.ca