The Maple Leafs obituary was already written. Brendan Shanahan left his post as president, Mitch Marner was traded. Or maybe it was William Nylander, whose scuffle with Marner on the bench during Game 4 (also involving Auston Matthews) has been the talk of the town in recent days…
But despite the absence of Matthews and with Joseph Woll in his first start of the series in net, Toronto survived Tuesday by winning 2-1 in overtime in Boston on a goal from young Matthew Knies.
The Maple Leafs have not yet completely recovered. But every spring, we make the same mistake: burying clubs before the final whistle.
And yet, teams make up such a deficit almost every year. This was the case in 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2019, each time in the first round.
The Winnipeg Jets and New York Islanders did not survive Tuesday. They were eliminated in five games by the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes, respectively. The Nashville Predators imitated the Maple Leafs by winning with difficulty 2-1 in Vancouver.
Curiously, in a majority of cases, the comeback takes place after a clear defeat in the fourth match, in a snatch victory during the fifth match. Not this year, but in previous seasons.
Let’s remember last year. The Boston Bruins, after their record season of 135 points, led 3-1 at the expense of the Florida Panthers, who entered the playoffs through the back door with 92 points, one less than the Calgary Flames, excluded in the West .
Without its first two centers, Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, Boston had outclassed Florida 6-2 in the fourth meeting in Florida thanks to four points from Taylor Hall. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky was making his first playoff start.
Matthew Tkachuk kept the Panthers alive by scoring in overtime in Game 5 in Boston. Carter Verhaeghe imitated him during the seventh meeting.
A few weeks later, the Panthers advanced to the final. And the choice of the Canadian obtained from Florida for Ben Chiarot went from 17e at 31e rank. Kent Hughes was going to trade him, along with a second-round pick, to get Alex Newhook.
The Pittsburgh Penguins suffered a fate similar to that of the Bruins in 2022. They had just won Game 4 7-2 and chased goaltender Igor Shesterkin for a second straight game. But Pittsburgh was weakened by the absence of their number one goalkeeper Tristan Jarry, among others. New York even trailed 2-0 in the second period in the fifth game which could have been fatal. Three games later, Pittsburgh would be eliminated in the first round or before (in the preliminary round at the hands of CH in 2020) for a fourth consecutive year.
Maple Leafs fans are still cursing the spring of 2021. They also led 3-1 against the Canadian, who didn’t look like much. Montreal had even just been soundly beaten 4-0 in the fourth game at the Bell Centre, thanks in part to three points from a certain Alex Galchenyuk. Jack Campbell got the shutout. He now plays in the American League with the Oilers farm club.
This same Galchenyuk had blundered in overtime during the following game by stupidly losing the puck at the opposing blue line and allowing this two-man breakaway by Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Jesperi Kotkaniemi allowed Montreal to win a second consecutive game in overtime and pushed the series to the limit.
And finally, in 2019, for the purposes of the current year, the San Jose Sharks would overcome a 3-1 deficit, not without losing the fourth game 5-0, by winning the sixth and seventh games in overtime. San Jose would reach the final four, but hasn’t made the playoffs in five years since.
With the Jets choosing…
Given the elimination of the Winnipeg Jets in the first round on Tuesday, the Canadian will draft in the worst case scenario at 27e rank with the pick obtained for Sean Monahan.
The CH can still advance a few ranks. On the other hand, the result of the second round series between the Rangers and the Hurricanes will not change anything. Both of these clubs finished ahead of the Jets in the overall standings and no matter who loses, both will draft after the Jets.
In the other portion of the Eastern Conference table, the Florida Panthers, winners in the first round, must lose in the second round against the winner of the series between Boston and Toronto to allow the CH to advance ‘an extra rank.
In the West, Montreal will move up a spot if Vegas beats Dallas in the first round since the opponents in the second round of this portion of the table, Colorado and Vegas, finished below Winnipeg in the standings.
If Nashville overcomes its 3-2 deficit in the first round against Vancouver, the CH automatically gains a place, since the Predators finished below the Jets in the standings, like the opponents of the other series, Edmonton and Los Angeles.
In summary, the Canadian will draft at 27e rank in the worst-case scenario, i.e. if the Panthers, Stars and Canucks reach the final four, but can draft 24e if Colorado or Vegas, Edmonton, Los Angeles or Nashville, Boston or Toronto reach the semi-final.
reference: www.lapresse.ca