OTAWA –
China’s foreign interference did not affect the overall results of the 2019 and 2021 general elections won by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, a federal commission of inquiry has found.
In an interim report on Fridaysaid Commissioner Marie-Josee Hogue, while it is possible that the results in a small number of constituencies have been affected by the interference, this cannot be said with certainty.
Hogue, who heard extensive testimony and reviewed secret documents, concluded that interference by Beijing or others did not undermine the integrity of Canada’s electoral system during the two national elections.
“Our system remains strong,” Hogue said after the release of his report. “The electors were able to cast their vote, their votes were duly recorded and counted and there is nothing to suggest that there was any interference in this regard.”
The meddling efforts also “had no impact on which party formed the government in the two most recent elections,” he said.
However, Hogue stated in his report that foreign interference undermined public confidence in Canadian democracy. “This is perhaps the greatest damage Canada has suffered as a result of foreign interference.”
The inquiry recently concluded 10 days of public hearings into suggestions of interference by China, India, Russia and others in the last two general elections.
“I learned that foreign interference is an ever-present reality not only in Canada, but around the world. I also learned that the government takes steps to try to respond to it, whether there are elections underway or not,” Hogue wrote.
“In this sense, foreign interference is like crime. It is always present. Its methods evolve. While the government has ways to address it, it is likely impossible to eradicate it. That said, its effects must be discouraged and mitigated.”
Under a federal protocol introduced by the Liberals in 2019, there would be a public announcement if a panel of bureaucrats determined that an incident – or an accumulation of incidents – threatened Canada’s ability to have free and fair elections.
There was no such announcement regarding either the 2019 or 2021 general elections. In both votes, the Liberals returned to government with minority mandates, while the Conservatives formed the official opposition.
Hogue said he cannot exclude the possibility that the result in some individual constituencies may have been affected by foreign interference. “However, in my view, the number of constituencies in question is relatively small and the ultimate effects of foreign interference remain uncertain.”
Hogue highlighted two examples that came up repeatedly during public hearings.
She examined the 2019 Liberal nomination race in Toronto’s Don Valley North, where Han Dong won the nomination.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service flagged a possible plot involving a bus full of Chinese international students with falsified documents, but Hogue said there was not enough evidence to draw conclusions about what really happened.
He also pointed to the 2021 results in British Columbia’s Steveston-Richmond East and found a “reasonable possibility” that a possible Chinese interference campaign against Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu would cost him the seat.
Overall, Hogue concluded that foreign interference “likely affected some votes” in the 2019 and 2021 general elections and, more broadly, undermined voters’ right to have an electoral ecosystem free of coercion or covert influence.
“This impact has likely been mild to date, but may become more severe in the future.”
The risk of politicians changing their positions or messages due to foreign interference will increase “if we do not take sufficient safeguards to guard against it,” Hogue wrote.
“This outcome would be very detrimental to the functioning of our democracy, as it would undermine the fundamental principle that politicians should be free to express their opinions and those of their constituents, without fear and without covert influence from a foreign state.”
Conservative MP Michael Chong called Hogue’s report “a damning set of conclusions” that contradicts “much of what the government has told us” over the past year and a half.
While Hogue’s key takeaways from the two most recent elections are reassuring to Canadians, his warnings for the future are very clear, said New Democrat MP Peter Julian. “So we have to prepare, we have to make sure as a country that we are prepared.”
Julian said the government should act now to create a registry of foreign agents to help detect undue influence in Canadian affairs.
Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Friday that the commission’s work will support the government’s ability to adapt anti-interference measures. He reiterated his plans to introduce legislation in the coming days to bolster the federal toolkit.
The bill is likely to include changes to existing laws, such as the CSIS Act, to make it easier for authorities to crack down on snooping, as well as establishing a registry of foreign agents.
The ongoing investigation will now move on to broader policy issues, looking later this year at the government’s ability to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.
In his interim report, Hogue said the evidence to date does not demonstrate “bad faith on the part of anyone, or that information was deliberately and improperly withheld, but does suggest that on some occasions, information related to foreign interference did not reach to its intended recipient”. , while in others the information was not adequately understood by those who received it.”
“These are serious issues that must be investigated and considered.”
Attempts to meddle in Canadian affairs have long been a reality, prompting harsh intelligence warnings as early as the 1980s about Beijing’s efforts to influence and exploit the Chinese diaspora.
In February last year, the Globe and Mail, citing classified CSIS records, said China worked to help secure a liberal minority victory in the 2021 election, as well as defeat conservative politicians seen as hostile to Beijing.
The following month, the federal government announced that an independent rapporteur would investigate foreign interference, one of several measures to counter meddling and strengthen confidence in the electoral process.
Former Governor General David Johnston, who took on the task, said in a May 2023 report that there were “serious deficiencies” in the way intelligence is communicated and processed from security agencies to the government.
However, it found no examples of ministers, the prime minister or their offices knowingly or negligently failing to act on intelligence, advice or recommendations.
Johnston said several leaked materials that raised legitimate questions were misinterpreted in some media reports, presumably due to a lack of context.
Finally, he recommended against holding a public inquiry, saying a commissioner would encounter the same obstacles of secrecy that characterized his work.
However, amid additional leaks to the media and pressure from opposition parties, the government announced in September that Hogue would lead a public inquiry.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 3, 2024.