Forecast Suggests Few Hospitalizations in Hamilton Amid Fourth Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic – Hamilton | The Canadian News

Hamilton Public Health projects that daily COVID-19 case rates will increase in the coming months, but expects few serious outcomes among those hospitalized for an infection.

During a public health board meeting on Monday, experts presented Scarsin’s latest forecast, suggesting about 200 possible worst-case hospitalizations, assuming public health measures are phased out in January and young people remain unvaccinated.

However, a more likely scenario is that some 130 health center admissions over the next two and a half months, in line with the “pause” of the province’s capacity limits in Ontario last week, and the likelihood that vaccines ages 5 to 11 hit 40 percent by the end of December.

The new data also suggests another 2,600 COVID cases at the high end with 13 deaths, while the best-case scenario presented to the board had just under 1,700 new infections during the same period.

“It shows that Hamilton can anticipate an increase in cases at increased risk of transmission due to increased indoor activities and reopening,” Medical Health Officer Dr. Elizabeth Richardson told counselors on Monday.

“However, serious outcomes, such as hospitalization and deaths, should be modest. They shouldn’t increase at the same rate we’ve seen before. “

Those under the age of 60 are more likely to be affected by COVID, according to the forecast, which suggests that ages 20 to 59 could account for 57 percent of new cases, while those under 19 could reach 32 percent.

Recently, the case count in Hamilton has outperformed several public health units in Ontario that reported increases in recent weeks.

Sudbury was a community that reintroduced capacity limits and other public health measures on Monday amid a recent “record number” of virus outbreaks.

The municipality’s percent positivity, which represents the average number of tests that come back with COVID from labs, was 4.2 percent over the past seven days compared to 1.7 percent for Hamilton recorded last week.

Ontario’s positivity rate was 2.2 percent as of Sunday.

Scarsin data predicts that the daily case count could reach around 40 new infections daily in the worst case and between the current 15-20 cases recorded in a most likely projection.

It is estimated that 113 new cases could be prevented in the new year with the administration of vaccines to about half of the people aged 5 to 11 years in the city.

A third scenario, which involves the relaxation of public measures and vaccination among 40 percent of children, suggested another 2,500 new cases of COVID between mid-November and the end of January.

Hamilton’s health partners gunned just over 3,400 doses of vaccines over the weekend, and on Friday it recorded the highest intake since Oct. 8: 1,768 doses.

That number is well above the monthly average for daily doses given so far in November, which is 1,014 per day.

Vaccination sites saw a 69 percent increase in visitors week over week, recording the distribution of 8,914 doses between November 8 and November 14.

The November average so far is slightly lower than the one recorded throughout October, 1,068 shots per day, and further behind the September average of 1,488 per day.

As of Monday, 82.4 percent of eligible Hamiltonians 12 and older have been fully vaccinated, while 85.7 percent have received at least a single puncture. The city is still behind the provincial average, which sees 85.8% fully vaccinated and 89.02% with at least one dose of vaccine.

Hamilton trails 31 other public health units in percentage of two-dose vaccines in Ontario.

Hamilton’s daily COVID-19 case rate held steady week-over-week, with public health reporting a seven-day average from 13 to Monday, three less than the seven-day average so far throughout November.

The rate is much lower than the seven-day average recorded in October, which was 24 cases per day.

Active cases fell over the weekend from 121 reported on Friday to 110 on November 15.

More than 67 percent of all active cases are in people under the age of 50, while 38 percent represents how many under the age of 30 have the affliction.

Since the pandemic began in March 2020, Hamilton has suffered 25,462 reported COVID cases.

There are nine reported outbreaks linked to 42 total cases across the city as of November 9. The largest is at St. Peter’s Hospital, which now has 18 cases in total: four among staff and 14 among patients.

Public health recorded four new outbreaks over the weekend, including eight cases at the Highland Packers manufacturing site, four at Rehoboth Christian School in Copetown, three at Sts. Peter and Paul Catholic Elementary and a single new case at Amica Dundas retirement home.

Hamilton hospitals reported a combined total of 24 COVID patients as of Monday. There are eight people in intensive care units (ICU).

Both public school boards have 31 cases combined in the last 14 days, 27 involving students.

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