Emmanuel Macron has still not declared himself a candidate for a second term, 51 days before the first round of the presidential election. But the ebb of COVID-19 and the official departure of French troops from Mali now allow him to take the plunge in better conditions.
A week ago, the Head of State linked the formalization of his candidacy to two conditions: to exceed the “epidemic peak” and to turn the page of an “international situation eminently at risk”.
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The first is on track since all the indicators are down and the return to an almost normal life seems within reach. On Wednesday, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran considered the end of the wearing of the mask indoors for adults and children “in mid-March”.
But the international aspect is more uncertain: the situation remains confused on the Russian-Ukrainian border and, despite Moscow’s announcements of the withdrawal of certain military units, the risk of an invasion has not disappeared, according to Washington.
On Friday, AFP journalists noted shelling near Stanytsia Luganska, a town in eastern Ukraine under the control of government forces fighting pro-Russian separatists.
“It is better in these conditions, when we speak with President Putin, to be head of state in office rather than candidate”, underlined Friday his Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian to justify a deferred entry into the campaign.
But even if Emmanuel Macron intends to remain very involved in the mediation between Moscow and Kiev, no international meeting is on his agenda in the coming days.
At the same time, he partly settled the Malian file by announcing Thursday, with his European partners, the departure of the troops in reaction to the “obstructions” of the colonels in power in Bamako, who have multiplied in recent weeks the affronts towards France, the former colonial power.
“With the end of this streak, which kept him busy, his agenda as president will clearly lighten up,” said a relative.
However, Emmanuel Macron, favorite in the polls, will he enter the running next week? Or the one after? “I hope that moment comes. When ? It’s a very personal decision. The candidates have until the beginning of March to declare themselves”, summarized Tuesday a minister, Marlène Schiappa.
“Everything is ready”
All eyes are on next week’s flagship event: the Agricultural Show, the annual meeting of French politicians wishing to embody their link with the rural world, especially during the election period.
Will Emmanuel Macron wander there on February 26 in the costume of the candidate president? Some observers even imagine that he endorses it on the spot, declaring himself in the middle of cows, tractors and stands of regional products.
For this long-awaited moment, “he will have to be both original and solemn, a balance that is not easy to find. It phosphorus …”, indicates a framework of the majority, acknowledging that “only a few people are in the secret”.
Once the formalization is done, “everything is ready for the first 15 days of the campaign”, the last arbitrations on the program to be recorded these days, assures this manager.
Emmanuel Macron has already presented a number of his projects during his recent presidential visits, denounced by his opponents as so many candidate trips at state expense.
He thus detailed programs on security, civil nuclear energy, space… projecting France, each time, on the horizon 2030, even 2050, well beyond the next five-year term.
All the polls place the outgoing president clearly ahead of the first round, which will be held on April 10, with around 25% of the vote, and winner in the second (April 24), regardless of the opponent.
If “the presidential election was a referendum”, he would be in difficulty, because only “a minority of French people are convinced of the quality of his balance sheet”, underlines Gilles Finchelstein, director general of the Jean Jaurès Foundation. But “his main strength lies above all in the weakness of the other candidates” since the French consider that they would do less well overall, or not better, than him, adds the political scientist.
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Reference-www.journaldemontreal.com