The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports its expectation of crime for Mexico at 1.2 percentage points of GDP for this year and now estimates that the economy will see a 2.8% advance in 2022.
This report, from 4% projected in November, will be the result of the increase in Mexican consumer purchasing power over inflation and the increase in United States export earnings, revealing the Internal Productivity Update (PIB) ) mundial.
According to the first deputy director general of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, the interruptions in the list of members and the high contagios of Covid-19, are crucial for the revision of the ban on expectations for Mexico.
At the press conference video, the last participant to present the information is the second agreement on the IMF, admitting that “significant degradations in the expectation of crime in Mexico and Brazil”.
Detailed as in the case of Mexico, this year will continue the acceleration that will begin in the second semester before the interruptions in the calendar of the Minister and the increase in contagios.
Hecho, the IMF estimates that the rebate of the Mexican economy in 2021, was 5.3% in GDP, with that also adjusting to the forecast that ten years ago in November, which was 6.2%, divided by the conclusions on the annual revision in accordance with Article IV.
The opportunity estimate for the GDP of all 2021 will be disclosed on the 31st of January by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Gopinath concluded that the report on the expectation of the GDP of Mexico also incorporates the expectation of the recovery in monetary conditions prior to inflationary pressures.
The most preserved
With the FMI’s expected revision for Mexico, this is how the body is less optimistic about the three that will update its prognosis in the month ahead. The World Bank hopes for a 3% advance in Mexican GDP while the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal), which prevails at 2.9 per cent. Both projections are 4.1% lower than incorporated by the Mexican government in the Economic Package 2022.
For the next year, the IMF estimates that the Mexican economy will record a 2.7% advance, a task that incorporates a mid-percentage increase in projection of ten-year projection.
Oxford Economics’ economist in charge of Latin America, Marcos Casarín, is happy to say that there is pressure on Mexican crime and tax austerity.
The expert concluded that “Mexico is the most important economic unit in Latin America that has not recovered its level of GDP before the pandemic”.
Casarín said that “the fact that there is now a recovery that has only slowed down a year, only confirms that the decision not to use a fiscal policy during the pandemic has meant that Mexico is experiencing more recovery”.
Interrupted global recovery
According to the Gopinath explanation, at the global level, economic recovery has been cut short by increasing the outgrowths of the Omicron variant and higher inflation.
In other words, the GDP of the globe will increase by 5.9% which is registered in 2021 and has a maturity of 4.4% in the economic dynamics for this year. The expectation of 2022 is lower in the midpoint of the prognosis that the international body presents in the autumn.
United States pierde dynamism
The deceleration of global growth will be guided by the United States, for which a 4% expansion is forecast for 2022, which will also show a lower dynamism of 5.6%, which will increase GDP by the end of the year.
Just like the GDP expectations of Mexico and Brazil, the new tax year for the current economy includes a record of 1.2 points respecting the expectations of the last quarter of last year, which stands at 5.2 per cent.
Moderan expectativa para avanzadas
The IMF’s forecast update includes a record of 6 decimals of points for advanced economies, which now predicts a 3.9% increase in 2022, lower than 5% projected in 2021.
The leading economies of the advanced conglomerate will be United Kingdom, with an expansion of 4.7% this year in three decimal places in the autumn, and Canada estimates that a 4.1% increase will also be expected from the 4.9% forecast by economists in October.
For the Eurozone, a 3.9% increase in GDP is expected, which is a 4.3% projected projection for months and an increase of 3.3% for Japan.
Brazil, with the minor disempowerment of the G20
As explained by the FMI economist, Brazil was one of the three economies of the G20 to have the most reports on expectations along with Mexico and the United States.
As a result, there is a 0.3% advance in GDP in 2022 that incorporates the impact of inflation on the economic capacity of consumers and contrasts with 1.5% projected in autumn.
This downgrade, like Gopinath’s lament, also incorporates the effect of the solid increases it has applied to the interest rate chain and which will be followed by the central bank. Asia, it is estimated that the largest economy in Latin America will record the minor dangers of the G20 this year.
This minor season of Brazil and Mexico will be linked to Latin America’s Caribbean and Caribbean GDP, a region that predicts a 2.4% advance in 2022, which will be lower in six cases to 3% forecast in October.
For China, which is the second largest economy on the planet, and is classified as one of the most emerging groups, the economists of the Fund anticipate an expansion of 4.8% this year, lower to 5.6% projected in October.
The press conference for the launch of this update of expectations, conducted last week by Gita Gopinath, who is part of the 1st of January, is the First Deputy Director of the IMF, seconded by Kristalina Georgieva.
The new economist in charge of the organism will be Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, of the University of California Berkeley, who will run Gopinath’s synod in his graduation exam.