Fluoroscopy | Will resign? Will not resign?

Spain is holding its breath following threats to leave its Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Plausible for some, bluff for others.

Why are we talking about it

Spain holds its breath. On Thursday, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez created a stir by announcing that he was “considering” a possible resignation after the opening of an investigation targeting his wife, Begoña Gómez, for influence peddling and corruption. “I need to stop and think” in order to decide “if I should continue to be at the head of the government,” declared the socialist leader on the social network X. Sánchez, in power since 2018, clarified that he would announce his decision on Monday to the press and that he would suspend his activities until then, leaving room for all conjectures.

What influence peddling?

The investigation, launched following a complaint filed by an organization close to the extreme right, focuses on the links between Begoña Gómez and private companies (airlines, among others) having received aid from the State and seeks to know if the first lady personally intervened in the negotiations. Pedro Sánchez rejects the accusations against his wife, which he describes as fabrications created to attack his family and himself, as part of an operation of “harassment and demolition” led by his political adversaries.

An exit from the top

For some, these threats of resignation should be taken seriously, as the Sánchez government is grappling with a corruption scandal over mask purchases during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its coalition with the Catalan separatists (won in price of enormous compromises, including a promise of amnesty to political prisoners) seems to be heading towards a wall. Rumors also indicate that he is interested in the presidency of the European Council, after the European elections next June, a position reserved for former prime ministers of member countries of the European Union. “That would give him an exit from the top. The calculation would be quite clever,” summarizes the historian Benoît Pellistrandi, specialist in Spain.

Bluff and “telenovela”

For Mr. Pellistrandi, however, it is more likely that this stunt was a bluff. By taking the initiative, Pedro Sánchez would rather seek to create an “electric shock” to divert attention. “Perhaps he thinks it is better to go on the attack and say: ‘I am the victim of a political conspiracy.’ Because by talking about a political conspiracy, we will no longer talk about his wife’s affairs. » The right-wing opposition seems to share this opinion, accusing the prime minister of being irresponsible in putting the country on hold. “For us, it is very clear that this is all part of a tactic (…). We know Pedro Sánchez and things always take the form of a telenovela (…),” denounced Cuca Gamarra, number two of the Popular Party (PP).

The Catalan context

Coincidence? This “telenovela” comes at a time when the regional election campaign on May 12 (equivalent to our provincial elections) begins in Catalonia, where the two rival independence parties, Esquerra republicana de Catalunya (left) and Junts per Catalunya (right), both partners, moreover, in Sánchez’s fragile coalition in Madrid. According to Benoît Pellistrandi, the Spanish Prime Minister’s coup could also have the effect of mobilizing the vote for the Party of Socialists of Catalonia (non-independence party). If he won the election, it would nip in the bud a hypothetical transpartisan independence alliance, dreamed of by the leader of Junts per Catalunya, Carles Puigdemont. Exiled in Brussels since the 2017 referendum, Carles Puigdemont is running as head of his party’s list for the Catalan presidency. Only problem: he is still subject to an arrest warrant for sedition and banned from staying in Spain. One scenario discussed is him coming to Barcelona at the very end of the campaign only to get arrested. “This would cause a very strong mobilization among the Catalans and could allow him to win the election,” underlines Mr. Pellistrandi.

And if he resigns…

If Sánchez ends up resigning after six years in power, the Socialist Party could propose the inauguration by Parliament, as head of government, of another person. Sánchez could also call early elections in which he would run again, hoping to solidify his majority. If he stays, one of the possibilities raised by observers is that he demands a vote of confidence in Parliament, in order to show Spain that he and his minority government are still supported by a majority of the Chamber of Deputies.

With Agence France-Presse, Euronews, The world, International mail