File | Forest Fire Study | The red zones of Quebec (2 articles)

Federal government scientists have identified “locations requiring immediate attention” in Canada because they are “at high risk” of catastrophic wildfires. This first – which required years of work – will help decide where to intervene as a priority, and by what means, in order to reduce losses as much as possible and better protect the population.

The “dramatic” increase in fires is already consuming billions of dollars each year, the study says. The firefighters are exhausted. No longer sufficient for the task. And many volunteers refuse to return to the front this year. “The situation is not viable in the long term,” says Sandy Erni, natural risks expert for the Canadian Forest Service, in an interview.

The first version of his maps – published in February in theInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction – shows the likelihood of fires occurring, and with what intensity, in different areas of the country.

To predict the extent of the damage that could occur there, the researchers even assessed the number and vulnerability of buildings located inside the forest territory or close enough for the fire to spread there – as sometimes happens in rural municipalities.

It is in Quebec that we find the most exposed buildings, i.e. 1.03 million, of which 15,000 are considered high risk.

In southern Quebec and Ontario as well as the Maritimes, fires are not so frequent. But those that spread there typically stand out for their ferocity, and often, many homes are nearby, emphasizes Sandy Erni.

“For the fire to start, it generally requires extreme environmental conditions, for example extremely low relative humidity, which will allow it to grow very large. So there will be a high probability that it will be high intensity. »

Red or dark orange areas of the map are at risk of being hit by the strongest fires (Class V or VI). At this point, they often become too dangerous to fight on the ground, and water released from aircraft evaporates before reaching the fire, which can make it uncontrollable.

More Quebecers than before in risk areas

According to the study, 1.8 million Quebecers live in or near forest regions. More than a third of them occupy areas directly at risk of burning. The others, who generally live in towns located nearby, could suffer indirect impacts, even if their homes do not burn. These will be socio-economic, psychological or affect health, due to smoke or stress.

“Despite everything,” observes Sandy Erni, “people are less accustomed to and less prepared for fire. It really causes an effect of surprise. You are peacefully at home. Someone knocks on your door and tells you you have to leave. You can’t breathe anymore. You see smoke everywhere…”

“A low or moderate level of risk does not mean that no damaging forest fires can occur,” recalls the researcher. Precautions should be taken in populated areas located near forests, especially during hot and dry periods. »

“The forest landscape is extremely beautiful, but when possible, it is better to have fewer people at high risk. (Once validated and updated), our maps could help plan new construction, showing which areas to avoid or favor. »

In Quebec and Ontario, between 2011 and 2016, the population increased in areas considered most at risk. Unlike what is happening in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Compared to the rest of the population, Indigenous people on Canadian reserves are seven times more likely to be stuck in the most perilous places. Nearly one in five residents has this misfortune.

“Hundreds of communities live isolated in the North, where countless evacuations have had to be ordered,” reports Sandy Erni. It impoverishes them, disorganizes them, and the situation will undoubtedly worsen considerably over the coming decades.

“But many are already really involved in risk mitigation, like clearing combustibles and making a list of people to be evacuated as a priority or with medical assistance. »

Updates required

The scientist has already undertaken to update her analyzes with Public Safety Canada, since some of the data available at the start of her work is now seven years old. “The maps will need to be redone periodically to be reliable,” she says.

The fires of 2023 have indeed transformed the landscape in several areas, razing combustible vegetation, which could protect them for some time.

Overall, fire activity tends to “increase, or even accelerate,” says the study. Because “fire seasons have become longer and more severe” and these disasters are becoming more and more frequent, due to “extreme weather conditions”.

Year after year, the flames force thousands of Canadians to flee, in addition to razing buildings and infrastructure, eliminating natural resources, and weakening the economy and health. By destroying 2,400 structures in 2016, the Fort McMurray, Alberta disaster caused at least $9 billion in damages, according to Edmonton researchers.

The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction has calculated that every dollar invested to mitigate the risk of wildfires could prevent $14 in future losses.

By 2025, Canadians will be able to consult interactive maps and graphs themselves to discover the extent of wildfire risks in their county, region or nation, and how to reduce them. A new national portal, the Wildfire Risk Explorer, must then be put online. Americans have already had access to a wealth of similar information and videos since 2018. While waiting their turn, Canadians can consult the FireSmart site.

Read the Canadian Forest Service study

Visit the Intelli-feu prevention site

Visit the Wildfire Risk to Communities website