Fact Check: Overturn Roe v. Wade is unpopular with Americans?

The ruling Roe v. The Supreme Court’s 1973 Wade Act protects women’s rights to seek an abortion “without undue restrictive government interference.”

However, a draft majority opinion, reportedly written by Justice Samuel Alito and leaked to Politico by an unnamed source, states that the Supreme Court plans to overturn this principle.

The document, which was confirmed by Chief Justice Roberts on Tuesday as “authentic” but did not represent a “final decision,” said: “It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to representatives.” people’s elect”.

The secretive newspaper has caught both those in favor and those opposed to the landmark ruling by surprise. Naturally, commentators on each side of the debate have claimed to have the support of the majority of the American public.

the claim

Tweets posted in May 2022 by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and conservative commentator Charlie Kirk, among many others, suggest that opposition to Roe v. Wade is unpopular and that America is a pro-life nation, respectively.

America is a pro-life nation.

—Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) May 3, 2022

While Kirk’s claim does not directly quote the 1973 ruling, given the context of the Supreme Court leak, it strongly implies that the majority of the US opposes Roe v. Wade.

Warren’s statement is clearer, making direct reference to the law and asserting that striking it down is tantamount to imposing “unpopular views” on the public.

An extremist Supreme Court is about to overturn #RoeVWade and impose his unpopular far-right views across the country. It’s time for the millions who support the Constitution and abortion rights to stand up and make their voices heard. We’re not going back, ever.

—Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) May 3, 2022

The facts

Trying to gauge the level of popular support for a policy or decision is always tricky. Reliable survey data is our best resource, but it’s still vulnerable to failure. Participatory bias, wording used, and sampling flaws are just some of the factors that could influence the accuracy of such a survey.

Furthermore, the tone of opinion on Roe v. Wade does not divide strictly into pro- and anti-abortion camps. Many Americans who support Roe v. Wade also favors restrictions that the ruling did not rule on, such as allowing abortion only in the first trimester.

However, consistent polling over decades seems to strongly suggest that the American public largely does not want the legislation repealed.

Perhaps one of the most useful resources for measuring this is Gallup, which has charted the trajectory of support for Roe v. Wade in recent decades.

From 1989 to 2021, the Washington-based analytics and advisory company has surveyed adults 18 and older, in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, to ask if they would want the decision reversed.

Court documents leaked to the press last night indicate that the US Supreme Court may be preparing to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade on abortion. In 2021, 58% of Americans opposed reversing the decision, while 32% were in favor. https://t.co/y48qrRhfd3 pic.twitter.com/2ZdMf40quS

—GallupNews (@GallupNews) May 3, 2022

Their results consistently show that Americans do not want the decision reversed, with more than 52 percent of those surveyed showing support over the years. While support for overturning the ruling has increased since 2018, that sentiment has never closely matched the sentiment of those in favor of the ruling.

Polling by other organizations and media analysis echo Gallup’s results.

Answering to news week’Asked for comment, representatives for Sen. Warren pointed to a CNN poll in January 2022, which found that 69 percent of Americans opposed reversing the decision.

It also found that if it were overturned, 59 percent of those surveyed said they would want states to make more permissive, not restrictive, abortion laws.

The Pew Research Center also found that in 2013, 2017Y 2019 most Americans opposed overturning Roe v Wade.

In 2020, NBC News data showed that 66 percent of adults also didn’t think the Supreme Court should overturn it entirely.

A Harvard CAPS-Harris survey released in 2021 also found that most Americans would prefer to keep the status quo.

Recent news quickly galvanized both sides of the abortion debate; Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene gloated over the draft opinion stating “Our God is greater,” while supporters of Roe v. Wade yelled “F*** Alito” in front of the Supreme Court.

Such invective statements can complicate the ability to assess the broader mood at face value alone. In addition, polling suggests that broader US views on abortion rights are more nuanced than support for Roe v Wade suggests.

For example, gallup found that fewer Americans believe that abortion should be legal under all circumstances than those who think it should be legal only under certain circumstances.

Gallup also found that the proportion of Americans who consider themselves for or against abortion has changed frequently over the past two decades. Polls in 2021 showed more people considering themselves pro-choice, just two years after the same poll showed the opposite result.

responding to a news week Request for comment, a spokesman for Kirk did not dispute the poll showing support for keeping Roe v. Wade, nor current data showing that the United States is overwhelmingly “pro-life.”

They affirmed the belief that there is “confusion” about the law and that Americans will become more pro-life over time, citing Gallup polls that show the gap between those on both sides of the issue has narrowed dramatically since 1995. .

It now stands at 49 percent identifying as “pro-choice” versus 47 percent “pro-life” as of 2021.

But despite some discrepancies between support for Roe v. Wade and support for abortions in general, there is no evidence to support speculative claims that the general public is in any way misinformed about the law.

And based on the best measure of public opinion available to us (public polls conducted by various independent polling organizations), it appears that Roe v. Wade still commands the support of the majority of the American people.

While the unexpected and heated debate that has fueled the Supreme Court leak could tip opinions in one direction or another, for now there is no evidence of such a change.

failure

Real.

Polls and polls from multiple organizations, some of which have charted the ruling’s popularity for several decades, have consistently found that most Americans do not support overturning Roe v. Wade.

NEWSWEEK FACT CHECK