A large bag of undecideds has in their hands to decide which party will hold the presidency of the Castilla and leon meeting after the elections next Sunday. In fact, 24% of voters confess that they still do not know which party they will support, a high figure that still leaves any scenario open. This is one of the conclusions of the survey what gesop has prepared for ‘The Opinion-El Corro de Zamora’.
The survey gives PP winner, with 34.7 voting intention. Those of Alfonso Fernández Mañueco would be handled in a range of between 32 and 35 attorneys, six of the absolute majority in the best of the scenarios for their interests and nine if the figure stays at the lowest figure. It is a significant rise from the current 29. The populars would regain the position of majority party in the community, category they lost in 2019, when the PSOE It was the most voted force.
those of Luis Tudanca they would lose voters with respect to the last elections and they would remain, according to the Gesop survey, with an intention to vote of 31% and with a range of representatives between 27 and 31. They are less than the 35 representatives that they defend in the Cortes.
The biggest rise is the one that stars the far-right formation Vox, which would double its support —from 5.49% to 10.3%— and multiply the number of attorneys by going from one to a range of between 7 and 10. Vox would, thus, be decisive when it comes to elucidating who will preside over the Junta de Castilla y León for the next four years. In the best scenario for PP and Vox, both would add 45 attorneys, four above the majority. In the worst they would remain in 39, two of the 41 that give a calm governability. However, both one and the other extreme are unlikely taking into account that there is a large transfer of votes between the two formations.
If Vox’s is the highest rise, citizens is the biggest fall. Those of Francisco Igea would go from twelve attorneys to a bracket of between two and three and would lose —except for surprise— the key to governability by going from 14.96% of the votes to 6.9%, a percentage with which, in small constituencies, it is impossible to access the attorney’s act.
United We Can improve its results for 2019 and, with 6.8% of the votes, he would obtain three attorneys. UPL also improves and would reach the two representatives in the Cortes of Castilla y León. Syria Now! he would win the elections in his province and would also obtain two acts of procurator. For Ávila, with a representative, he would repeat results.
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The survey reflects, thus, that Castilla y León is one week away from experiencing a major change of forces in its institutions. The Government coalition of the Popular Party and Citizens, formalized in the spring of 2019 and which was blown up on December 20 of last year, does not add the necessary votes to reissue the pact. The PP would have to rely on Vox. It would be more complicated for the PSOE, which would need to rely on a conglomerate of parties —Unidas Podemos and local forces, in addition to Ciudadanos— for Luis Tudanca to be president.
Reference-www.elperiodico.com