In a span of two months, the expectations of the America club They radically changed from the shadows to the light. At the close of day 8 of the tournament Closure 2022Earlier in March, Eagles fans were the butt of ridicule because their team was sinking to the bottom of the table with only six of a possible 24 points, but today they are back in contention for the title as They went straight to the league zone.
To rebuild the path, the Americanist board relied on a coach with no experience in the First Division and whose resume in Mexico was only six games coaching a sub 20 team: Fernando Ortiz. The 44-year-old Argentine replaced Santiago Solari from matchday 9 and then the azulcrema performance was on the rise.
Ortiz managed to win 20 of 27 points in the second half of the tournament, being the team with the highest effectiveness in the last nine days (74%) and boosted the America from the bottom of the table to their ninth consecutive league. But the change was not only noticeable in the number of points, but also in the data, where the azulcremas show that under the reins of their interim coach they have modified issues such as discipline and offensive variants.
“Regarding the net of expected goals, América was at an average of 0.36 per game and now it is at 0.88, it is practically generating opportunities of one more goal than the rival in each game and, in terms of expected points, with Solari they brought 1.51 , they were not generating enough to win the games, rather they were very close to draws and losses. Now they are at 1.89, being superior to all their rivals, which is why it is most likely that they will win their matches”, explains Luis Fernández, CEO of Under Data, a consultancy specializing in data scouting within soccer.
This agency is in charge of analyzing more than 100 variants in the teams, ranging from the expectation of goals, points, percentages of effectiveness of passes and shots, ball control and attack zones. On this occasion, Under Data shared with The Economist the statistics in which Ferdinand Ortiz surpassed Santiago Solari in terms of America’s performance.
In the field of discipline, there were notable changes in the reduction of reprimands and expulsions, as well as misplacements. The most alarming figure was the 0.5 red cards per game, which dropped to 0.11, as well as the 1.75 average of offsides, which dropped to 0.89, showing a greater concentration of the players.
“There are differences in specific points, simply the issue of the cards is something that is closely related to the atmosphere of the group, with the mental, because if every two games you were finishing with one less man it is because they were late for the plays or because there was a bad mood in the group. They are committing fewer fouls and practically half of the offsides, the fact that they mark you less means that you are much more attentive and you can have more plays, make more scoring options”.
The balance of goals for and against also improved. With Solarithe eagles scored 1.12 goals per game and with Ortiz 1.67, in addition to the fact that their expected scores went from 1.5 to 1.6, but where they score the most is in defense, since the rivals went from having a goal expectation of 1.14 each time they faced to America before day 9 to 0.72 after that date.
Although possession remains at an identical percentage between the efforts of Solari and Ortiz (51%), the variations of the interim and the ease that he has given to certain players allowed them to advance in other statistics: the effectiveness of passes went from 81 to 84%, successful dribbling jumped from 59% to 66% and counter attack effectiveness also jumped diametrically from 90% to 181%.
“On the subject of dribbling, it is shown that his individual game is improving, that is a good metric, because the number of dribbles and his effectiveness increased (…) Yes, improvements are seen, although not tactically and they are not overwhelming, but yes, doubling scoring opportunities is a lot because sometimes the panorama changes, how many teams would like to have these numbers that America is having now, ”emphasizes the specialist.
The style of play between Solari and Ortiz also changed and it is evident from one stat: the aerial disputes, which fell precipitously from 64 to 37 per game. From Under Data’s point of view, this happened because before America made clearances a priority, but with Fernando Ortiz’s technical management it is only a resource in cases of extreme need, since now they bet more on low passes and ball control. touch ball.
“They had 30 turnovers for this type of play, now they are less than 20, they reduced the number only by changing this small detail of the team’s style of play and now they seek to go on aerial balls only when they are caused by the rival or when they are in definition zone, America no longer seeks to jump lines unless it is a resource for a matter of pressure or not risking.
Thanks to this new style with greater ball control, players who had disappeared at the beginning of the tournament have stood out, such as the creative Diego Valdés or the midfielders Alejandro Zendejas and Álvaro Fidalgo; Luis Fernández also highlights the role played by striker Federico Viñas, full-backs Jorge Sánchez and Luis Fuentes and even goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, who “has returned to his level.”
América managed to finish in fourth place in the general table after a tournament of resounding falls, becoming the team with the most appearances in leagues consecutively with nine, since it has not been absent since Clausura 2017. It is one win away at the Azteca Stadium against Puebla to be able to advance to the semifinals, which would be one more star in the uncertainty of ratifying interim coach Fernando Ortiz or not.
“Ortiz knew perfectly well what was happening in América, he was soaked and he has the ability to analyze what the team’s problems were without being directly involved, that gives him the facility to have a very good feeling of where the opportunity areas and points are. of inflection”.
about the continuity of Ferdinand Ortiz in the technical direction of the first team for the next tournament, the specialist points out: “I think the best thing is that it stays because it also has people from home surrounding it like Raúl Rodrigo Lara and in general the atmosphere of the group looks very good. Everything will depend on how it ends (the Clausura 2022), with Solari they reached the league and in the first they were kicked out, if that happens to Ortiz again he will surely leave, but if he continues to lead the team to promotion then he will have arguments to sustain ”.
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