From this date to the year 2026, data traffic traveling over mobile networks would increase at a compound rate of 27%, and although by then fifth generation or 5G networks will be more available in the market with notable deployments of Installed infrastructure and availability of packaged services for industries and end consumers, the bulk of all traffic will continue to be supported in the next triennium by fourth-generation networks and their own evolutions, such as 4G-LTE Advanced networks.
A document from the consulting firm Analysys Mason reveals that in 2021, 83% of global mobile data traffic will still travel through 4G networks, despite the fact that various organizations related to the same telecommunications industry say that in Latin America 5G networks will become more widespread than communication networks of previous generations such as 2G, 3G or 4G itself, until having at least 15 million 5G connections in 2022 and a score of incipient 5G networks being installed in various countries of the Latin American continent, where regional economies collapsed more than 10 % due to the coronavirus pandemic and the money users pay – around $ 4 in powerful Brazil – for their monthly services does little to speed up the construction of 5G technology here.
Due to data and diagnostics like the latter, in emerging markets such as Mexico, 4G-LTE networks will continue to serve the majority of the consumer market and the improvement in the management or administration of existing 4G networks with good benefits in speed or quality service is the challenge for operating companies as they think about how to migrate their users to 5G.
Analysys Mason predicts that by the end of 2022, 4G-type networks will still support 70% of mobile traffic and 58% by 2023.
It will be until the end of the year 2024, when 5G networks become the technology that supports 51% of the data traffic and other applications that will be used by consumers, the productive sector and government organizations, for all the promises that the industry says 5G will bring more than just mobile browsing speed improvements. By 2025, mobile traffic will travel 60% on 5G networks.
Even with the push and lobbying of the different European, Asian and North American vendors to place their 5G technologies among the various operators, the economic impact of Covid-19 Since 2020, it has slowed down the investment plans of these agents to think about developing networks and products with 5G technology, and directed towards which market segments that offer profitability and rapid return on investment.
“The Covid-19 pandemic caused some operators to delay their 5G rollout plans and focus on making the most of their existing network infrastructure to cope with increased traffic. This delay in the progress of 5G implementation has extended the lifespan of 4G in developed markets, and operators in emerging markets with no immediate plans for 5G have been forced to upgrade their 4G networks to handle the growing number. of users and traffic ”, he said Analysys Mason.
With the latter reflected in Mexico, the companies Movistar and Altán Redes have commented in the press that in the short term they would choose to modernize their 4G networks.
While AT&T and Telcel analyze which 5G products to sell in the market, to start from there on what type of infrastructure to install; An example is their first offerings of a fixed wireless ultra-fast Internet.
In addition to the pandemic, operators suffer from tax burdens that become an obstacle to access the radioelectric bands more conducive to developing 5G, at least in Mexico, a market in which up to 92% of the resources raised by the State of the operators correspond only to the annual use of frequencies.
This panorama, on a global scale, has forced service providers to postpone 5G construction plans and take better advantage of the management of already installed 4G networks, he explained. Analysys Mason.
“5G will provide a lot of additional capacity to mobile networks, but the availability and coverage of those networks around the world will continue to be limited for years to come. Much of the population, especially in emerging markets, will depend primarily on 4G networks to access mobile services. Therefore, existing 4G networks will continue to play a critical role in consumer connectivity services as operators invest in 5G deployments, ”disclosed the consultancy.
“Mobile data traffic around the world will grow at a CAGR of 27% by 2026, this without a significant increase related to 5G and that 5G traffic will only exceed 4G traffic in 2024; and mobile OTT video will continue to be a key driver of mobile data consumption, but then mobile or cloud games will also account for a growing share of traffic. “
The pandemic also disrupted IoT markets
Analysys Mason He also said that the total number of wireless Internet of Things (IoT) connections worldwide will increase at a CAGR of 15%; from 1.8 billion connections in 2020 to around 6.2 billion in 2030.
But IoT connectivity revenues will grow more slowly than the number of connections and at a CAGR of 11% between 2020 and 2030, this due to competitive pressure and the erosion of purchasing power in some markets, whose economies were also hit by the pandemic.
“The increased use of IoT during the pandemic and the introduction of 5G will provide additional opportunities for operators to increase their number of IoT connections, but they may have to take more risks if they want to translate this into significant revenue growth.” , raised Analysys Mason.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx