COVID-19 is spreading faster than last year among students and staff. Could schools be closed before Thanksgiving?

Ontario has confirmed more than 300 COVID-19 cases at the beginning of the school year, a number that one expert says indicates the virus is spreading faster than last year and is raising the alarm about school closings so soon. like Thanksgiving.

Ahmed Al-Jaishi, an epidemiologist and postdoctoral fellow at the Ottawa Health Research Institute, said he was surprised to see 328 confirmed cases in students and staff reported when the province released its initial set of data on Tuesday.

“I don’t know what I expected,” Al-Jaishi said. “But my knee-jerk reaction was, ‘That’s a big number.’ “

Based on his research, Al-Jaishi said that community transmission for people under the age of 20 is six times higher compared to last year. This year, Al Jaishi found that there are 60 COVID-19 cases per million in people under the age of 20. The number was 10 cases per million last year.

Provincial data dating from Aug. 23 and released Tuesday shows that of the 4,844 schools being tracked in the province, 218 schools, or about 5 percent, have confirmed cases of staff or students. At this time last year, there were fewer than 30 confirmed cases in schools, according to archived data.

Avenue Road Public School in Cambridge and David Maxwell Public School in Windsor have the highest, with each school having eight cases in total.

According to provincial data, there are 14 cases of COVID-19 in 13 Toronto schools, mostly in students.

École élémentaire La Mosaïque in East York has the highest of all Toronto schools with two confirmed cases. The remaining twelve schools in Toronto each have a case.

Toronto Public Health, meanwhile, is investigating 23 schools that potentially have COVID-19 cases. The province numbers are for confirmed cases only and do not specify the source of infection.

They may also be delayed in other reports. For example, Ontario specifically cautions that if there is any discrepancy between its data and data from a public health unit, then the data from the public health unit should be considered the most current figures.

Last week, Medical Director of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said that while people should expect some COVID-19 activity during the school year, schools are relatively safe. Moore cited federal data showing that 87 percent of students who contracted COVID-19 during the school year contracted it outside of school.

Al-Jaishi has independently monitored Ontario’s school case counts since last September.

Because the school year has just started, most of these cases are a result of community broadcasting rather than school broadcasting, he says.

“If the cases increase in schools, we know that the cases will increase in the community, just because the children do not live in silos, but instead interact with family, friends and other members of the community,” Al-Jaishi said. “I think (the school case counts) are an important indicator of what is going to happen in the community.”

Although the province is committed to keeping children in school without interruption, especially with more widespread vaccination, Al Jaishi is not confident that this school year will run smoothly amid the ongoing pandemic.

“I feel like right now we are poised to fail and we are prepared to see early school closings, possibly Thanksgiving or more likely Christmas,” Al-Jaishi said. “I hope that doesn’t happen, but if nothing changes, that’s where I personally see it going.”