The first impression yesterday was nightmarish, general inflation in the United States with an annual increase of 8.5% and oil prices with an increase during the day on Tuesday of more than 7 percent.
And it is precisely energy prices that explain this inflationary spike to levels not seen in general US inflation in more than 40 years.
The price of gasoline in the United States reached an average of 20 pesos per liter. This is because there are states, like Texas, where Mexico buys its fuel, where it costs 18.50 per liter, but there are other states like California, where it costs an average of 28.80 per liter.
Shocking data that also comes from the arrogance and pessimism of the Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin and his low expectations that the peace talks with Ukraine will advance and the economic and psychological effects that the largest city in the world, Shanghai , China, is in total confinement due to Covid-19.
And if something was missing from the equation of negative news, the city of New York was once again the target of a violent event that recalls the worst moments of terrorism.
In the midst of all this, where can there be a buoy to take hold in the sea of bad news?
Because, anyway, the stock markets in the United States did not end in the crash after hearing all those headlines.
There is a data that opens a sliver of hope that inflation in the United States could soon find its turning point.
It turns out that, although it was 1981 when that country saw data similar to today’s in general inflation, it is also true that central inflation, which in Mexico we call core inflation, had a lower increase than expected by consensus. in the markets.
The increase during March of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.3%, which implied a great distance from the 0.5% expected by analysts. Sure, this core inflation in the United States is at 6.5%, which is outrageous, but it may have already hit a ceiling.
Of course, it is an uncertain scenario when SARS-CoV-2 returns to the roll call among the great unresolved issues and when the Moscow regime does not seem to take a single step back in its expansionist efforts.
However, that little green shoot of core inflation below market expectations gives some hope that the more drastic monetary policy measures to be taken by the Federal Reserve in the remainder of the year will find ground where they can deliver. results.
Because it is a fact that the recipe that the central bank of the United States will apply is going to alter the world markets, which means that the price of the dollar will rise, but if there is the expectation that it can effectively start a process of lowering the speed with which prices rise, it will be easier for everyone.
The nightmare
annual hike
The US Department of Commerce reported that headline inflation was 8.5% in March.
Underlying
Core inflation in the United States is at 6.5%, specialists believe that it may have peaked in March.
fuels
Energy prices reached prices not seen for more than 40 years. In California gasoline was sold at 28.80 pesos per liter
Televisa News Anchor
The great Depression
Bachelor of Communication Sciences from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a specialty in finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a master’s degree in Journalism from the Anahuac University.
His professional career has been dedicated to different media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El Economista and news anchor on Televisa. He is the owner of the 2 pm news space on Foro TV.
He is a specialist in economic-financial issues with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host on radio and television. He has been part of companies such as Radio Programas de México, where he participated in VIP business radio. He was also part of the management and talent team of Radio Formula.