As the weeks go by the war in Ukraine is getting more and more bitter in the fighting on the ground now concentrated in the Donbas region. During all this time the focus has been on the battlefield and, in most cases, other movements that happened many more kilometers away and that are now beginning to show their consequences have been ignored.
As we have already said here on other occasions, there are several unwanted and unexpected consequences for the Kremlin of its aggression against Ukraine. The first, greater cohesion of the Ukrainian nation built in front of the aggressor; the second, unity of action by the EU and the Western bloc as a whole; third, strengthen NATO giving it a strategic objective that until February 24 was not clear.
The shipment of weapons and the imposition of sanctions They have been two of the essential actions with which the West has been involved in the war. The political objective, in principle, was to favor the right to self-defense of the Ukrainians and economically suffocate the Putin regime. However, as the days go by, what is being revealed, more and more explicitly, is that the fundamental objective is to weaken Russia to extremes never seen before. And all economically, militarily and dialectically encouraging the prolongation of a war where Ukraine only puts the dead.
The last move is the acceleration of the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Atlantic structures and, therefore, reinforcing the alliance itself with partners that have very powerful armies and expanding NATO’s direct border with Russia. The possibility of these countries joining NATO was something that has been contemplated for years by the Finnish and Swedish governments, although to date they have not had sufficient support from public opinion that Putin’s war has shot. The determination with which the executives of, above all, Helsinki, and, to a lesser extent, Stockholm, are managing a rapid incorporation into NATO, also has surprised the Kremlin.
In light of these facts, it should not be surprising that, from peripheral actions to the battlefield, the Russian Federation begins to play the cards it has at its disposal, which, as practically all analysts have pointed out, are, essentially, the military muscle and hydrocarbons. Remember that thing about the Russian Federation being a big gas station? Well, it seems that Finland’s announcement of its desire to join NATO immediately, together with the approval of financial aid to Ukraine by the US never seen since the Second World War, together with the threat of approval of a new package of sanctions against Russian oil by the EU has made Moscow begin to show its cards through the imposition of coercive economic measures such as cutting off gas supplies to Europe. Russia has begun to use the playbook marked out by Western strategists from the gray area.
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The progressive cut of supply to Europe can have dramatic consequences for many countries. Already at the European Energy Council a few days ago, the Finnish economy minister warned about the possibility of a Russian supply cut to Finland. So, she warned her, that this would have very detrimental effects for the Finnish industry since, despite the fact that the country only has a 5% dependence on Russian gas, this fully impacts the industry and the food sector, and rebound in employment and in the price of electricity and gas from other suppliers.
It does not seem like a coincidence that the same day that the Finnish authorities announced their imminent request to join NATO, Russia decides to cut the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. The West acts passive-aggressively, Putin reacts virulently. With these wicks, we are not only facing the prospect of a long and bloody war in Ukraine, but also the prospect of an escalation of the conflict is increasingly plausible.