The World Health Organization (WHO) said Monday that there is enough evidence to understand that people who have been vaccinated against covid-19 or those who were infected in the past can contract the omicron variant, whose spread is accelerating day by day. worldwide.
For this reason, and a few days before the end of the year festivities, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, general director of the Organization, asked to avoid the holidays. “A canceled event is better than a canceled life (…) this is very serious and we are very concerned about omicron,” he explained.
Regarding the statements of the world health authority, this Tuesday the Undersecretary of Health, Hugo López-Gatell, assured that the recommendation applies only to Europe and added that it is common for the media to take Tedros Ghebreyesus’s statements out of context and amplify a alarmist speech.
Faced with the dilemma, what is the outlook for Mexico?
A fourth wave in our country is latent. With the return of massive entertainment and economic activities, in the context of the winter season, where cases of respiratory diseases increase, and the spread of the omicron variant, the breeding ground is propitious, as specialists from the country agree.
Cristian Morales, representative of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in Mexico, pointed out that in the next two or three weeks we could be observing the effect of massive events. “In December and January it is highly probable that we will experience a new wave of covid-19,” he estimated.
So much so, he explained, that there is already an upward trend in active cases of covid-19 in northern Mexico. “There is a certain change in the trend with the color yellow in several of these states (…) it is not the time to lower our guard. Vaccination and respect for non-pharmacological protection measures must be continued in order to have a safe and healthy Christmas holidays. “
According to data from the Ministry of Health, Mexico reaches this period (epidemiological week 48), with an increase of one percentage point in the number of estimated cases of covid-19, compared to the previous week.
Last November, the same Secretary of Health, Dr. Jorge Alcocer Varela, did not rule out a fourth wave of infections. At that time López-Gatell Ramírez assured that the reduction of the epidemic curve dissipated that possibility, but circumstances have changed rapidly. They have said that they do not rule out more waves for Mexico, although they consider that the WHO alert is not yet for the context of our country.
Concern factors
According to Dr. Mauricio Rodríguez, spokesperson for the University Commission for Emergency Attention of covid-19 of UNAM, in Mexico there are already signs of a fourth wave of covid-19, but there is still no sustained transmission, due to what the challenge is to prevent the new variant from finding optimal conditions for its transmission.
“What could happen is that ómicron finds favorable conditions for its transmission in case the measures are relaxed during the next weeks (…) we do not have a stage of strong epidemic activity right now. If there we close the door to the variant we can make their introduction and arrival slower and the fourth wave to advance slower as well, “he said.
Dr. Samuel Ponce de León, coordinator of the University Commission, declared that although a fourth wave in the country had been contemplated, the irruption of the variant had not been anticipated, so, he estimated, there could be more infections than expected.
For Rafael Bojalil Parra, a researcher at the UAM-Xochimilco Health Department, the goal has not been met, as the federal government announced at the end of October, when it reported that 47% of the population was fully vaccinated.
“It is very likely that we will have a fourth wave, mainly at the expense of those under 40 years of age, due to the variations, due to the winter itself, which normally the respiratory infections are more frequent and intense, and due to the lack of vaccination to smaller populations. Plus, all the Christmas holidays, all of this is most likely going to trigger another big wave by mid-January. “
Reinforcements are not a green light
In this context, the WHO warned that it is “an illusion” to think that the booster dose in countries (with possibilities) means having overcome the pandemic. On the contrary, he noted that this could prolong the situation as long as there are no supplies to advance in low-resource countries.
“No country will be able to overcome the pandemic with booster vaccinations and these do not mean a green light to celebrate as we had planned,” Tedros Adhanom said on Christmas Eve. “These indiscriminate booster programs could even prolong the pandemic rather than end it, by diverting available doses to countries with high vaccination rates, thus giving the virus a better chance to spread and mutate.”
Only half of the WHO member countries have vaccinated beyond 40% of their population due to problems with global supply. (With AFP info)
Let’s avoid a fourth wave
Although we are tired of confinement and in these times we want to see our family members, we must minimize risks. UNAM recommends:
- Discuss whether there are vulnerable people in the group.
- It is desirable that everyone has received the complete vaccination schedule.
- Exercise extreme precautions five to seven days before the event.
- Ideally for people who do not live in the same house: have previous antigen tests.
- Anyone with symptoms consistent with covid-19 should not go, even if the test is negative.
Let’s avoid a fourth wave
States with a yellow traffic light and their active cases:
- B. California: 2,333
- Sonora: 1,116
- Chihuahua: 1,561
- Durango: 262
- Aguascalientes: 491
Accumulated throughout the country:
- Contagions: 3,940,401
- Deaths: 298,359
- Estimated Assets: 17,931
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx