In its September 18 edition, The duty published an opinion piece in which four former MPs from different parties demanded that Canada end its arms exports to Saudi Arabia.
This subject touches on a deeper question, which unfortunately was not addressed during the election campaign: what role should Canada play on the international stage? For years, Canadian foreign policy has mainly been guided by the often inconsistent combination of partisan political considerations with an admittedly laudable desire to position Canada as a “moral” actor on the international stage. The debate on the war in Yemen reflects this reality well.
The Saudi war in Yemen is a disaster, both morally and strategically. Since launching its intervention in 2015 at the head of a coalition of 10 states, Saudi Arabia has failed miserably, despite strong support from the United States and several other Western countries, to achieve its goals.
The first of these goals is to re-establish the internationally recognized government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, who was expelled from the capital, Sana’a, in 2014 by the Houthis, a rebel group from the northwest and supported by Iran. However, the Houthis are much stronger today than they were six years ago. The second objective is to counter the influence of Iran. However, the Islamic Republic is today much more influential in Yemen than in 2015. In its conduct of the war, Saudi Arabia has also committed numerous atrocities that several non-governmental organizations have qualified as war crimes.
Canada’s role
What should Canada do? According to several critics who want the country’s foreign policy to be guided by moral values, Canada must above all cancel its arms sales. The moral appeal of this proposal is obvious. In practice, on the other hand, a foreign policy divorced from the reality on the ground and based on noble but abstract principles risks failing, as much with regard to its idealistic objectives as with regard to the pursuit of the interests of the Canada.
Obviously, Canada alone has no influence over the war in Yemen; whatever he does, this war will continue. Canada can, however, work together with its allies. What would be the consequences, then, if Canada and its American and European allies reduced or eliminated their support for the Saudi partner?
Riyadh’s war effort would be seriously weakened. Inevitably, the Hadi government would risk collapse. The only actor who would benefit from it would therefore be the Houthis, who already control entire swathes of the country. However, the Houthi administration is violent, obscurantist and highly corrupt. Any supposed humanitarian gain would thus be non-existent.
The Houthis, in addition, are an important member of the revisionist axis led by Iran and receive significant support, especially in the field of drones and missiles. Thanks in part to this assistance, they can now threaten shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden (two critical sea lanes for world trade) and they can strike critical military and economic infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Their gains would therefore be costly for the United States and its allies.
This is not to recommend that Canada and its allies enthusiastically support the war in Yemen or, more generally, that they adopt a crudely realistic foreign policy devoid of all morality. There is, on the other hand, a tradition in Canada of commentators, academics and politicians for whom foreign policy should be guided by purely local, moral or partisan considerations, unrelated to reality beyond our borders and with little thought as to the consequences of such prescriptions.
Rather, a more serious debate should recognize that there is no easy solution to the conflict in Yemen. Moreover, a rule of thumb should be to avoid escalating the situation, in Yemen or elsewhere – which Western interventions centered on our own concerns or guided by a moralizing crusade ideology have too often done.
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