“The outlook for covid-19 is positive but the pandemic could still surprise us. We have to be prepared because the virus is still with us in Europe and in the world, and we cannot lower our guard & rdquor ;, recalled the health commissioner, Stella Kyriakides during the presentation this Wednesday of the new European Commission strategy to manage the next phase of the covid-19 pandemic. A phase in which vigilance and preparation will be “essential & rdquor ;, according to Brussels, to prepare the Twenty-seven against possible new outbreaks and variants during the coming autumn and winter.
“The last two years have shown us that in the summer months we are likely to see lower incidence rates. The pressure of the pandemic will therefore probably fall in the coming months. This creates a window of opportunity to prepare for possible future pandemic outbreaks & rdquor ;, maintains the European Commission in a new analysis in which it finds that, although omicron is less serious than previous variants, the decreased immunity against infection and the possible winter seasonality could increase the likelihood that they will arise and spread new variants of SARS-CoV-2the virus that causes covid-19.
integrated surveillance
Added to this risk is the fact that there are countries that have begun to apply new approaches to the pandemic, which could lead to a fragmentation in the EU response. Faced with this situation, Brussels calls on governments to continue working together, because “coordination will be, once again, essential & rdquor ;, to strengthen surveillance, health systems and global preparedness. Therefore they demand a integrated surveillance system, based on real and representative estimates of the transmission of the disease and not on the identification of reported cases, which works together with the rest of respiratory diseases. Governments, Brussels maintains, would have to complement it with other surveillance systems on wastewater and others such as the flu virus or antimicrobial resistance.
The new roadmap also raises analyze and sequence a sufficient number of samples to accurately estimate the circulation of variants and detect the appearance of new ones. Governments must establish priority groups. For example, people affected by outbreaks, those at risk of developing severe covid, people who have regular contact with vulnerable populations and health workers, among others. In recent months, the Member States have adapted their testing strategies, in some cases reducing their performance, which is a challenge from an epidemiological point of view.
Vaccines, the priority
Refering to vaccination strategy, Brussels recommends continuing to vaccinate, particularly the most vulnerable groups. “We still see big differences in vaccination coverage between Member States. Closing gaps between adults should be the priority & rdquor ;, says the Commission. There are two issues of particular concern ahead of next fall. Firstly, the stagnation in some Member States. More than 90 million people remain unvaccinatedabout 9 million over 60 years, which increases the risk of mortality and the appearance of new variants.
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In addition, there are large differences in the tvaccination coverage handles. In some Member States, almost 85% of the population has the full guideline, in others less than 50%. There is also concern about the lower efficacy of the vaccine among people who have not yet received a booster dose, which so far has only been given to 64% of those over 18 years of age. “Although the future course of the pandemic is difficult to predict, one thing is certain: Covid-19 is here to stay. The virus will continue to evolve and the appearance of new variants is very likely. Our response must consist of maintaining high levels of preparedness for outbreaks and the appearance of new variants of the virus, and increasing vaccination coverage, with specific efforts to reach those who are not yet vaccinated & rdquor ;, insists the Commission.
For this reason, it urges governments to prepare to inject additional doses for autumn/winter. “It will be necessary to take into account the new evidence on the decrease in the protection conferred by vaccines and natural infection, the epidemiological situation and the appearance of new variants, as well as the development of new vaccines and their effect on the infection and the subsequent transmission & rdquor ;, pick up the plan.