Statistics Canada has just released a major report that changes how it counts Canada’s non-permanent residents (NPRs).
According to the latest population estimate, NPRs account for 2,198,679 people in Canada. A difference of over one million from Census 2021.
Note: This is a developing story.
The report is significant because Statistics Canada acknowledges that it previously undercounted the country’s NPR population. The revised methodology has significant implications for Canadian public policy in a variety of areas, including immigration, economic and labour market planning, housing, among other important areas.
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The Statistics Canada update comes following recent reports by CIBC Economics and the C.D. Howe Institute that found both the Statistics Canada annual census and the quarterly estimate of population growth was significantly undercounting NPRs such as students, temporary foreign workers, and temporary residents (TR).
CIBC estimated there could be as many as one million NPRs not accounted for in Canada’s population. It also noted that data from the 2021 census suggests that there were just under 925k NPRs in Canada, while the quarterly estimate suggested the count was 1.17 million. It says that due to undercounting, that number is likely much higher.
CIBC also said that Statistics Canada was aware of undercounting in the 2011 census. The 2011 census is estimated to have undercounted the number of NPRs by more than 40%. Back then, the absolute number of NPRs was relatively small, so the undercounting did not have profound implications on population growth
Explaining the gap
There are several possible reasons for undercounting. According to the CIBC report, the census does not necessarily have an accurate count of all international students. The report says this is likely because students often arrive from countries where talking to the government is ill-advised. Further, many students are unable to complete the census because of confusion surrounding an instruction that says students should not include their address if they are going to return to live with their parents during that year.
The census also doesn’t consider people in Canada who are on maintained status. This means people who have expired work, study or visitor visas who have applied for an extension or a new permit.
The CIBC report says that Statistics Canada predicts that Temporary Residents (TR) will leave Canada within a month of their permit expiration. However, TRs very often stay longer than their original intent because of ample employment opportunities in Canada or because they are waiting for an Invitation to Apply (ITA) through an Express Entry program.
Further, the COVID-19 pandemic impacted population numbers because many borders were shut and NPRs, could not return to their home countries. In response, IRCC introduced work permits and post-graduation work permit extensions that would encourage newcomers to stay while immigration from abroad was at a standstill.
Canada’s population
Statistics Canada reports that 96% of Canada’s population growth in 2022 came from international migration.
Another Statistics Canada report released in March 2023 stated that Canada’s population had reached 39.5 million people by January 1, 2023. This represented a growth of over one million people over one year. It estimated that 607,782 people in Canada were NPRs.
Additionally, Census 2021 data found that immigrants made up 23% of Canada’s population. An inaccurate measure of the population through undercounting NPRs can create difficulties in economic forecasting, as well as adequately meeting the needs of all Canadians and newcomers in terms of essentials such as housing supply and healthcare.
reference: www.cicnews.com