RIO DE JANEIRO –
Brazilians voted Sunday in a highly polarized election that could determine whether the country returns a leftist to the helm of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or keeps the far-right incumbent in office for another four years.
The contest pits current President Jair Bolsonaro against his political nemesis, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. There are nine other candidates, but their support pales before that of Bolsonaro and da Silva. Polling stations opened at 1100 GMT (7 am EDT; 8 am Brasilia time).
Recent opinion polls have given da Silva a commanding lead: the latest Datafolha poll published on Saturday found that 50 percent of respondents who intend to vote for a candidate said they would vote for da Silva, compared to 36 percent. cent for Bolsonaro. The polling institute interviewed 12,800 people, with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
The Bolsonaro administration has been characterized by incendiary discourse, its testing of democratic institutions, its widely criticized handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the worst deforestation in the Amazon rainforest in 15 years.
But he has built a devoted base by defending traditional family values, rejecting political correctness and presenting himself as the nation’s protector from leftist policies that infringe on personal freedoms and produce economic turmoil.
A slow economic recovery has yet to reach the poor, with 33 million Brazilians going hungry despite higher welfare payments. Like several of its Latin American neighbors facing high inflation and large numbers of people excluded from formal employment, Brazil is considering a shift to the political left.
Gustavo Petro in Colombia, Gabriel Boric in Chile, and Pedro Castillo in Peru are among the leftist leaders in the region who have recently come to power.
There is a possibility that da Silva could win in the first round, without the need for a second round on October 30. For that to happen, he would need more than 50 percent of the valid votes, which exclude null and blank ballots. Brazil has more than 150 million eligible voters and voting is mandatory, but abstention rates can reach as high as 20 percent.
An outright victory would sharpen the focus on the president’s reaction to the count given that he has repeatedly questioned the reliability of not only opinion polls, but also electronic voting machines. Analysts fear he has laid the groundwork to reject the results. At one point, Bolsonaro claimed to have proof of fraud but never produced any, even after the electoral authority set a deadline to do so. He said as recently as Sept. 18 that if he doesn’t win in the first round, something must be “abnormal.”
The two main candidates have key support bases: evangelicals and white men for Bolsonaro, and women, minorities and the poor for da Silva.
Da Silva, 76, will vote in Sao Paulo state, where he was once a metalworker and union leader. He rose from poverty to the presidency and is credited with building an extensive welfare program during his 2003-2010 term that helped bring tens of millions into the middle class.
But he is also remembered for his administration’s involvement in major corruption scandals involving politicians and business executives.
Da Silva’s own corruption and money laundering convictions landed him 19 months in prison, leaving him out of the 2018 presidential race that polls show he had led against Bolsonaro. The Supreme Court later overturned da Silva’s convictions on the grounds that the judge was biased and in collusion with prosecutors.
Bolsonaro, who will vote in Rio de Janeiro, grew up in a modest family before joining the army. He eventually turned to politics after being forced out of the military for openly lobbying for higher military salaries. During his seven terms as a fringe lawmaker in the lower house of Congress, he regularly expressed nostalgia for the country’s two decades of military dictatorship.
His overtures to the armed forces have raised concerns that his possible rejection of the election results may be backed by senior commanders.
Traditionally, the participation of the armed forces in elections has been limited to bringing voting machines to isolated communities and reinforcing security in violent regions. But this year, Bolsonaro suggested that the military should conduct a parallel vote count.
While that did not materialize, the Defense Ministry said it will verify the results at more than 380 polling stations across Brazil. Any citizen or entity can do the same, consulting a vote count available at each table after the ballots close and online.
Because voting takes place electronically, preliminary results are often available within minutes and the final result is available a few hours later. This year, all polls will close at 5 pm Brasilia time (4 pm EDT; 2000 GMT), regardless of areas in later time zones.