When Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February, expected the country to be defeated quickly and easily. That Ukraine has been able to defend itself and fight back so impressively is a tribute to the fighting spirit of the people of the country, to the courageous leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky, and to the support of NATO and the United States, which have sent large amounts of aid and weapons.
As several recent press reports have made clear, the US has also shared intelligence with kyiv that has allowed the Ukrainian military to sink at least one Russian plane. warship and murder several Russians general.
I fully support the policy of providing Ukraine with intelligence to help in its fight, including intelligence that leads to inflicting painful defeats on Russian forces. It is also good that Russia knows that we have played an important role in allowing Ukraine to defend itself.
But it is very bad that this information is public knowledge. I don’t blame the journalists who have reported it. If trustworthy, high-ranking government officials reveal newsworthy information to a reporter, it is generally considered acceptable to publish it. I blame officials, especially since the Biden administration has made it clear that you have not authorized the disclosures. This is a person or group of people who brag to journalists about their role in hurting Russia. That is extremely unwise and could well lead to an exceptionally dangerous escalation of the conflict that ends with the US and NATO clashing directly with Russia militarily.
The problem with these stories, again, is not what they reveal. Russia’s invasion of its neighbor is the most aggressive military action undertaken in Europe since 1945, which could put NATO on a collision course with a powerful threat to the east. That requires a forceful response. If Ukraine were a member of NATO, we would now be at war with Russia. But because Ukraine is not in NATO, something less than a direct military confrontation is required.
What the Biden administration has opted for is a form of proxy warfare in which Ukraine fights, picks the targets and fires the weapons, but we often supply the weapons and provide intelligence that allows Ukraine to pick the targets intelligently and accurately. . This demonstrates the resolve of the United States and NATO while keeping us at least one step away from directly confronting Russian forces. It is good for Russia to know that our intelligence is strong enough to put its warships and senior military officers at serious risk, and that we are willing to share that intelligence with Ukraine. Both could well spark a de-escalation, as the Russian military command and President Vladimir Putin grapple with the reality that it may be impossible for them to achieve anything beyond relatively minimal war goals.
But such a de-escalation becomes much less likely if the American role in inflicting pain on the Russian military becomes public knowledge. That’s because much of politics, even in authoritarian regimes, involves managing appearances. To sell a policy of détente to the Russian people, Putin must be able to present it as at least a partial victory. Otherwise, he would risk looking weak and opening himself up to a collapse of support and/or an attempted coup that could leave him deposed from power and even dead. Humiliating Putin could also inflame patriotic anger among ordinary Russians, who could end up demanding retribution in the form of some face-saving action against NATO.
This is how bragging to journalists about the US role in helping Ukraine inflict maximum damage on Russian forces could well start a spiraling escalation culminating in a direct US-Russian military confrontation.
This is something that the Biden administration, at least at the highest level, seems to notice. But then why are some officials nonetheless blathering with reporters? Author Yuval Levin has written about the trend in recent years for people who work in large institutions to treat them as personalized attention platforms and applause rather than as structures that constrain individual behavior and channel it towards the ends served by the institution. I suspect that’s what’s been going on here: insiders who know about our covert efforts on behalf of Ukraine have decided to brag to reporters about it, thinking it will improve their image in official Washington’s ruthless status hierarchy.
This is nothing new. It had been taking place on a small scale within the beltway for a long time before Levin took notice of its spread throughout the capital and American culture in general. But Ukraine leaks are far worse than the norm, due to their potential to upset already very fragile relations between Washington and Moscow. It’s one thing for a congressional intern to talk to a reporter about the status of budget negotiations on Capitol Hill. It is quite another for a Pentagon or NSA official to try to impress a journalist by saying that the United States helped blow up the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during the war.
The Biden administration has all kinds of back channels to communicate our role to Russia in a way that will not destabilize the situation by announcing it publicly, thereby putting Putin in a situation where he feels the need to avenge Russia’s wounded honor. If and how to do it is the president’s decision. It is certainly not something that someone should decide on their own without authorization.
If we’re not careful, we’re going to end up stumbling into World War III, and all because some smug official thought it would be funny to show off to someone in The New York Times.
You may also like
Trump’s Increasingly Expensive Demands: ‘Witch Hunt’ or a Minimum of Justice?
5 cartoons about the leaked Roe draft
Nepalese climber breaks his own world record on Mount Everest
Reference-news.yahoo.com