The race for a new British prime minister is heating up after Boris Johnson resigned last week following a series of scandals.
Nearly a dozen candidates are vying to succeed Johnson as leader of the ruling Conservative Party in an increasingly bitter and unpredictable contest, with the winner set to become prime minister in the fall.
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With British politics in turmoil, the ripple effects of a change in leadership will likely be felt abroad but will not change Canada-UK relations, political experts say.
“This is not just a domestic situation,” said Andy Mycock, a politics reader at the University of Huddersfield, in the United Kingdom.
A change in the British regime or Tory leadership matters on the international stage, Mycock said, pointing to relations with the European Union after Brexit and the war in Ukraine.
“One of the things we can be absolutely certain of is that whoever replaces Boris Johnson will certainly have a different personality and will probably want to impose a different policy framework,” he added.
Johnson’s announcement on Thursday came after months of ethics scandals and a wave of government resignations as he dramatically lost the support of his ministers and most Conservative lawmakers.
It remains to be seen who will replace Johnson, who has led a Conservative government since 2019.
The new leader will be chosen in a two-stage election, with the aim of finding a successor by September.
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Srdjan Vucetic, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s graduate school of public and international affairs, said what is happening in Britain is “quite significant” and whoever comes to power could change the UK’s role in the protection of European security, not only in Ukraine, but other places in Europe.
Whoever takes Johnson’s place, Britain will remain solidly behind Ukraine, said Jeremy Kinsman, a former Canadian high commissioner to the UK.
“Perhaps his successor will be a somewhat more common speaker and get less attention, but I don’t think he’s going to soften anything significant in British opinion,” he told Global News.
On Thursday, global markets responded positively to Johnson’s announcement, but that could change “depending on what happens next,” Vucetic said.
Britain is a close ally of Canada.
As members of the Commonwealth, NATO, the G7 and the G20, Canada and the UK have a long history of shared interests on the political and economic front.
The two Western nations have aligned NATO commitments to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia and have coordinated a series of sanctions against Moscow in response to Russia’s invasion of its neighbor.
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Boris Johnson’s ouster will have no impact on Canada-UK ties or trade talks
Canada and Britain are negotiating a new bilateral trade agreement because the agreement they both had under the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the European Union was dissolved when the United Kingdom left the European Union.
Johnson championed closer ties with Canada, including on trade, after Britain left the European Union, kicking off negotiations on a free trade deal.
A spokeswoman for Canada’s International Trade Minister Mary Ng said her party’s removal of Johnson would not affect the negotiations, which would continue smoothly as Canada and the UK share a long history and close ties.
Kinsman said the job of any Canadian prime minister is to get along with their main partners, including the US and the UK, adding that whoever becomes the new British prime minister, “both of them will work at it.”
Given Ottawa’s long history of cooperation with the UK, Vucetic does not anticipate that Johnson’s departure or even a drastic change in a Conservative government will affect the foreign policies of the two countries, including NATO commitments to help Ukraine against Russia and various free trade and investment agreements. .
“I don’t think there is going to be a radical change in our relationships or in the closeness of our relationships. I think they will remain exactly as they are now,” she said.
— With archives from Crystal Goomansingh of Global News, Kyle Benning, The Canadian Press, Reuters and Associated Press
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