Let’s get one thing straight: The best bet of the weekend is the number of times a member of the media describes Game 7 as the “best two words in all of sports.”
With five Game 7s in the NHL over the next two days, it’s easy to get excited about the do-or-die nature of this first-round series. You may have some additional reason to be on the edge of your seat if you’ve been following this space, but if not, let’s take a look at what’s worth betting on this weekend.
Bruins (+115) @ Hurricanes (-140)
We’ve been on the Bruins since before the series started, then we wanted more after Game 1 and again in Game 4, so I think it’s fair to say our opinion has been obvious. Boston has fueled even-strength play in this series by a marginal amount, outscoring the Hurricanes in expected goals 5-on-5 (10.59-9.3).
Of course, neither team has won an away game, suggesting that Carolina has been dominant at PNC Arena. However, the Bruins have had more even-strength expected goals (6.39-5.2) in organized play in Raleigh.
Before the series, he had the Bruins as a moderate favorite to win outright and 50-50 to win any game in Carolina. At +115 for Game 7, Boston is still worth betting on if you haven’t previously invested in this series.
Choose: Bruins (+115 or better)
Lightning Bolt (+105) @ Maple Leaves (-125)
Call it fate or a reasonably decent handicap, but this matchup couldn’t have gone more according to plan for the astute bettors. My numbers expected a tied series with game-by-game results accentuated by home court advantage: a near 60% chance of victory for each home team.
After six games, the uniform force game is as close as possible to the level:
| TEAM | 5-IN-5 XG | HDC 5 IN 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Flash of lightning | 10.82 | 54 |
| Maple Leafs | 11.69 | 51 |
The high-danger goal chance (HDC) count has slightly favored the Lightning, while the Leafs have the advantage in expected goals (xG). For its part, the local team has won four of the six games (66%).
At -125, Toronto is supposed to win this game 55.6% of the time, and I have a team win probability of 59.9%. Of course, there is the matter of supposed curses and history, but we don’t have a formula for that.
Choose: Maple Leaves (-125 or better)
Kings (+175) @ Oilers (-210)
The Oilers lost Game 1, and we happily jumped into the Edmonton series midway through at a pick’em price. So, as discussed after Game 4, there’s not much left to do, but give it a go, as backing the Oilers now means placing a huge -210 price on a team that only beat the Kings by 54% rate. at five against five for the series.
In fact, the Kings have outscored the Oilers 30-28 in even-strength high-danger chances at Rogers Place, and Edmonton enters the game with a limping Leon Draisaitl and the consistently inconsistent Mike Smith.
It’s hard to argue against Los Angeles’ value unless they already have the Oilers to win the series at -110.
Choose: Pass or Kings (+175 or better)
Penguins (+125) @ Rangers (-150)
Before Sidney Crosby was eliminated from this series in Game 5, the Penguins were +115 on the money line in New York. After a loss in Game 6, where they again outperformed the Rangers on par (3.25-2.48 expected goals), the Penguins are +125. Bettors have adjusted between 2% and 4% for Crosby’s absence.
After the Avalanche, Pittsburgh has been the most dominant team in the first round, driving the game even without Crosby. Assuming he can’t play though, it’s hard to imagine they’re only 4% less likely to win at Madison Square Garden. Also, the Pens goalkeeping situation has come to a head after Louis Domingue conceded the softest of the game-winning goals on Friday.
We have tickets to the Penguins series before Game 1, and that’s as far as I’m willing to go.
Choose: Pass
Stars (+170) @ Flames (-205)
The Stars’ mission was to take this series to Game 7, and since that was accomplished, our bets on Dallas (+1.5 games) have been paid off. With no obligation on either party, it’s worth mentioning that if you can find the Llamas for less than -200, that would be the best price we’ve seen at home.
The Flames have been noticeably better at even strength, so if you followed our recommendation to bet on them midway through the series, you’re in excellent shape. The total jumps higher than any other matchup as games in Calgary have been drastically low compared to those in Dallas (26 HDC five-on-five overall in Calgary versus 81 in Dallas).
The Stars can more easily match lanes in Calgary and play a textbook fairway game, so look for a historically typical deciding game near the vest.
Choose: Less than 5.5 (-110)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s something wrong, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Reference-www.thescore.com