Mexico’s trade flows are likely to moderate due to higher global risks, despite the resilience of external demand, Banorte projected.
Risks include the conflict in Ukraine and additional disruptions from Covid-19 in China.
Considering these factors, among others, the World Trade Organization (WTO) cut its global growth estimates for international trade this year a couple of weeks ago, going from 4.7 to 3.0%, while it estimates a growth of 3.4% for 2023.
On the first factor, the WTO emphasized the possible food crisis due to the increase in prices given that Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of grains and fertilizers, as well as other raw materials.
Regarding the second, a Banorte analysis indicated that the problems in the supply chains have been exacerbated due to the strict policy on Covid-19 in China, especially in maritime transport.
Shanghai port lockdowns have already spread to other ports, while those in Beijing could make the situation worse.
“Also, higher prices are a growing concern as they could lead to more demand destruction,” Banorte said.
These issues are still quite relevant even though companies are looking to diversify their inputs and have taken other measures to deal with the current shortage, although their effect will remain limited, according to the bank.
In this environment, the global shipping and logistics company Maersk has said that waiting times remain very high on the west coast of the United States (especially in Long Beach), while the effect of Covid-19 in China has been seen most clearly in delays in Hong Kong, Yantiam, Shanghai and Ningbo, among the most relevant places.
Meanwhile, the same company said that in Mexico, waiting times at ports remain acceptable.
On the local side, there were also disruptions in trade between the United States and Mexico due to the order of the governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, to inspect all cargo trucks that share the border with his state (Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Chihuahua and Coahuila). .
This measure was given in response to the plan to remove immigration restrictions based on “Title 42”, which allowed the expeditious return of illegal immigrants who crossed the land border. Although these inspections were in effect only from April 6 to 15, an analysis by The Perryman Group estimated losses of around $9 billion in US GDP.